「當有史以來最嚴重的颱風來臨時,我們只想帶着大量流動性走出颱風,我們想把100%的現金留着去收購企業。」
「在危機下,很多人的反映是被嚇呆了。以航空公司為例,他們不知道該怎麼辦,但他們都在和政府談判,沒有人給沃倫打電話。」
「我認為,早晚經濟將會復甦,那將會是温和的經濟增長。就業水平很可能因為種種原因再也恢復不到疫情發生前的水平,我們永遠也回不到之前的就業率水平了。」
【Charlie Munger最新觀點】
Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’
查理·芒格:「我和沃倫的電話沒有響個不停」
Will Berkshire step up now to buy businesses on the same scale?
伯克希爾·哈撒韋會像2008、2009年那樣進行同樣規模收購嗎?
「Well, I would say basically we’re like the captain of a ship when the worst typhoon that’s ever happened comes,」 Mr. Munger told me. 「We just want to get through the typhoon, and we’d rather come out of it with a whole lot of liquidity. We’re not playing, ‘Oh goody, goody, everything’s going to hell, let’s plunge 100% of the reserves [into buying businesses].’」
「嗯,我想説,當有史以來最嚴重的颱風來臨時,我們就像一位船長。」芒格説到,「我們只想逃離颱風,我們寧願帶着大量的流動性衝出去,我們很認真的對待,這不是鬧着玩的。「哦,太好了,一切都要完蛋了,我們想把100%的現金留着去收購企業。」
He added, 「Warren wants to keep Berkshire safe for people who have 90% of their net worth invested in it. We’re always going to be on the safe side. That doesn’t mean we couldn’t do something pretty aggressive or seize some opportunity. But basically we will be fairly conservative. And we’ll emerge on the other side very strong.」
他補充道:「為了那些把90%淨資產都投資於伯克希爾的人,沃倫希望伯克希爾是安全的。我們總是站在安全的這一邊,但這並不意味着我們不能做一些積極的操作或抓住一些機會。基本上,我們是相對保守的,但也會在市場有明確安全預期時進場。」
Surely hordes of corporate executives must be calling Berkshire begging for capital?
肯定有很多公司高管打電話給伯克希爾,想要你們投資吧?
「No, they aren’t,」 said Mr. Munger. 「The typical reaction is that people are frozen. Take the airlines. They don’t know what the hell’s doing. They’re all negotiating with the government, but they’re not calling Warren. They’re frozen. They’ve never seen anything like it. Their playbook does not have this as a possibility.」
「不,他們沒有」,芒格説,「在危機下,人們最典型的反應是,好像都被嚇住了。以航空公司為例,他們不知道該怎麼辦,他們都在和政府談判,沒有人給沃倫打電話。他們的生產活動被凍結了,他們從來沒見過這樣的事,他們也沒想到過這種可能性。」
He repeated for emphasis, 「Everybody’s just frozen. And the phone is not ringing off the hook. Everybody’s just frozen in the position they’re in.」
他重複了一遍,強調説:「所有人好像都被嚇住了,而且我和沃倫的電話也沒有響個不停,每個人好像被困在了原地。」
With Berkshire’s vast holdings in railroads, real estate, utilities, insurance and other industries, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger may have more and better data on U.S. economic activity than anyone else, with the possible exception of the Federal Reserve. But Mr. Munger wouldn’t even hazard a guess as to how long the downturn might last or how bad it could get.
伯克希爾在鐵路、房地產、公用事業、保險和其他行業持有大量股份。巴菲特和芒格先生可能比其他人(除了美聯儲以外)有更多、更準確的關於美國經濟的數據。但芒格也不敢猜測經濟低迷會持續多久,或者會變得有多糟糕。
「Nobody in America’s ever seen anything else like this,」 said Mr. Munger. 「This thing is different. Everybody talks as if they know what’s going to happen, and nobody knows what’s going to happen.」
「在美國,從來沒有人見過這樣的事情」,芒格説,「(疫情)與以往任何事情都不同。每個人都説他們知道會發生什麼,但沒有人知道會發生什麼。」
Is another Great Depression possible?
可能會出現另一場大蕭條嗎?
「Of course we’re having a recession,」 said Mr. Munger. 「The only question is how big it’s going to be and how long it’s going to last. I think we do know that this will pass. But how much damage, and how much recession, and how long it will last, nobody knows.」
「當然,我們正在經歷一場衰退,」芒格説,「唯一的問題是它影響範圍有多大,持續時間有多長,但我們確切地知道這件事會過去。而具體會造成多少損失、衰退的程度有多大、會持續多久卻沒有人知道。」
He added, 「I don’t think we’ll have a long-lasting Great Depression. I think government will be so active that we won’t have one like that. But we may have a different kind of a mess. All this money-printing may start bothering us.」
他補充道:「我不認為我們會出現長期的大蕭條,政府會採取積極的舉措避免出現大蕭條。但我們會進入一段混亂的時期,美聯儲的‘印鈔’行為會對我們有所困擾。」
Can the government reduce its role in the economy once the virus is under control?
如果病毒得到控制,政府會降低其在經濟中的干預作用嗎?
「I don’t think we know exactly what the macroeconomic consequences are going to be,」 said Mr. Munger. 「I do think, sooner or later, we’ll have an economy back, which will be a moderate economy. It’s quite possible that never again—not again in a long time—will we have a level of employment again like we just lost. We may never get that back for all practical purposes. I don’t know.」
「我們並不確切地知道會有哪些宏觀經濟的後果,」芒格説,「但我認為,早晚經濟將會復甦,那將會是温和的經濟增長。就業水平很可能再也恢復不到疫情發生前的水平,可能因為種種原因,我們永遠也回不到之前的就業率水平了,我不知道。」
Berkshire won’t escape unscathed. 「This will cause us to shutter some businesses,」 Mr. Munger said. 「We have a few bad businesses that...we could be tolerant of as members of the family. Somebody else would have already shut them down. We’ve got a few businesses, small ones, we won’t reopen when this is over.」
伯克希爾不會毫髮無損,芒格説:「這場危機會使我們關閉一些業務。我們有一些經營不善的生意……作為(伯克希爾)家族企業中的一員,我們可以容忍(它們),但如果是其他企業,則已經被關閉了。我們有一些規模小的企業,關閉後將不會再開業了。」
Mr. Munger told me: 「I don’t have the faintest idea whether the stock market is going to go lower than the old lows or whether it’s not.」 The coronavirus shutdown is 「something we have to live through,」 letting the chips fall where they may, he said. 「What else can you do?」
芒格先生告訴我:「我完全不知道股市會不會創下新低。」他説,因為冠狀病毒帶來的全國隔離是我們必須要做的事情,只能順其自然了。「你還能做什麼呢?」
Investors can take a few small steps to restore a sense of control—by harvesting tax losses, for instance—but, for now, sitting still alongside Mr. Munger seems the wisest course.
投資者目前可以通過小幅的操作來恢復控制感,但是,就目前而言,和芒格先生保持一致似乎是最明智的做法。
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☆ネイティブの生の会話からリアルな英語を学ぶ☆
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1) -like(〜のような)
=================================
-likeは、口語的に「~のような」「~みたいな」と言う時に使われる表現で、日本語と同じように、名詞の語尾にlikeを加えると名詞が形容詞になります。例えば、childは「子供」という意味の名詞ですが、likeを加えてchildlikeとすれば、「子供のような」という形容詞になります。
<例文>
Sometimes she talks in a childlike tone.
(彼女は時々、子供のような口調で話します。)
He took the day off today. He said he has flu-like symptoms.
(彼はインフルエンザのような症状があると言って今日は休みました。)
I’m not sure what it was. It was a lizard-like creature.
(あれが何だったのかよく分かりません。トカゲのような生物でした。)
=================================
2) Start out with(〜から始める)
=================================
Start out with…は「〜から始める」という意味の表現です。Start with…と意味は同じですが、start out withの方がより口語的な響きがあります。
<例文>
Let’s start out with some stretching exercises.
(ストレッチから始めましょう。)
I started out with NHK radio. Now I listen to the podcast.
(私はNHKラジオからスタートをしました。今はポッドキャストを聞いています。)
I always start my day out with a cup of coffee.
(いつも1杯のコーヒーから1日をスタートします。)
=================================
3) Up until(〜まで)
=================================
Up untilは「〜まで」を表す表現です。Untilだけでも同じ意味ですが、up untilの方がより口語的なニュアンスがあります。
✔より強調したい場合は、right up untilのように、rightを加えましょう。
<例文>
Up until three years ago, I couldn’t speak any English.
(3年前までは、全く英語が話せませんでした。)
Everything was working perfectly fine up until now.
(これまでは全てうまくいっていたのですが。)
We were working right up until the deadline.
(私たちは締め切りギリギリまで働いていました。)
=================================
4) Pick up(普及する)
=================================
Pick upは状況に応じていろいろな意味を持つフレーズですが、今日の会話では、ビジネスが「軌道に乗る」、ファッションやトレンドが「普及する」という意味で使用されています。物事や状況がだんだんと好転したり勢いづいていくニュアンスがあります。
<例文>
Credit cards and electronic money is finally starting to pick up in Japan.
(クレジットカードや電子マネーが、やっと日本で普及し始めました。)
I feel like the Japanese economy has been picking up lately.
(最近、日本の景気が良くなってきているように感じます。)
Up until last month, business was really slow but it’s been picking up lately.
(先月までは業績不振でしたが、最近は活気づいてきました。)
=================================
5) Blast(ガンガン〜する)
=================================
Blastは音楽やテレビの音量を上げてガンガン鳴らしたり、エアコンを強力に効かせることを意味する口語表現です。ポイントは、必要以上に音量を上げたり、極端な温度設定をすることです。
<例文>
Our neighbor was blasting their music all night. It was so noisy.
(隣人が一晩中、音楽をガンガン鳴らしていて、すごくうるさかった。)
Why is the AC on full blast? It’s freezing.
(何でエアコン全開なの?めっちゃ寒いよ。)
I used to blast music in my car when I was young.
(若い頃は車の中で音楽をガンガン鳴らしていました。)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
本日ご紹介したフレーズは、iTunes Japanの「Best of 2017/2018」に2年連続選出されたHapa英会話の人気コンテンツPodcast第223回「成長とともに変化する音楽」の内容の一部です。Podcastの全内容をご覧になりたい方は、Hapa英会話のブログをチェック!会話の全文、会話の要約、ピックアップしたフレーズ、ポッドキャストでは説明できなかった表現や言い回しが掲載されています。
https://hapaeikaiwa.com/podcast223
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
money talks意味 在 多益達人 林立英文 Facebook 的精選貼文
【為什麼「別擔心錢了,去旅行吧」是個蠢到不行的建議
Why “Don’t Worry About Money, Just Travel” Is the Worst Advice of All Time】
(Sources: Rob@flickr, girllostinthecity.com)
(Time.com, Jul. 1, 2015) —by Chelsea Fagan
I have an internet acquaintance that I’ve been following on social media for a little over two years now, an all-around nice, smart girl who blogs and does odd jobs and has recently decided to go back get a Master’s. In Europe. For a degree that, by all reasonable accounts, is probably not going to lead to a great job. And she knows this, I think, because she talks about it as “an opportunity to learn and expand her mind,” more than any sort of preparation for a future career. Which is fine, but the truth of the matter is that she is able to enjoy such freedom — to be a wanderer of sorts who enjoys travel, study for the sake of study, and long conversations over good dinners — because she comes from a good bit of wealth and, if not subsidized entirely, never has to worry about her safety net. She won that particular bit of genetic lottery, and it’s useless to begrudge her the freedom that fate bestowed on her.
我有個網路上認識兩年多的女性友人,是個在社群網站上人緣頗佳且聰明的女孩,只做些打工、寫寫部落格過日子,最近又決定回去修個碩士學位。那是個位於歐洲,且是個無論怎麼合理的解釋也肯定對未來找到好工作一事永遠派不上用場的學位。而且我想這位女網友也知之甚詳,因為她描述起這學位時,只提到說「想有個機會擴展心靈」,而非是要用來準備將來就業所需。乍看之下這女孩的一切令人稱羨,但上述中她之所以能夠享有這樣的自由,像是漫無目的的出國旅行、為了念書而念書、花費很多的時間討論美味晚餐…,這些全因她來自有錢的家庭。這女孩就像是中了基因的樂透一樣,她的自由自在是投對胎所致的,所以一般人對其毋需羨慕也毋需妒恨。
But it is useful — important, even — to begrudge her the attitude that comes with it, one that is all too prevalent amongst young people who do not have to worry about the foundations of their future financial security: This idea that you must travel, as some sort of moral imperative, without worrying about something as trivial as “money.” The girl in question posts superficially inspiring quotes on her lush photos, about dropping everything and running away, or quitting that job you hate to start a new life somewhere new, or soaking up the beauty of the world while you are young and untethered enough to do so. It’s aspirational porn, which serves the dual purpose of tantalizing the viewer with a life they cannot have, while making them feel like some sort of failure for not being able to have it.
但真正有用甚至可說必須的是,去妒羨像這個女孩背後代表的這種生活態度。在美國就有一大群奉行這樣教條式信念卻又衣食無憂的年輕人,他們認為:趁年輕就要出國旅行、不必擔心金錢這種小事。這女孩在自己飲食作樂的照片上面,寫滿了膚淺的勵志小語貼文,像是:「拋下所有束縛,逃脫一切吧!」;「辭去妳討厭的工作,去另一個新天地展開新的人生吧!」;「趁著妳依舊年輕且無拘無束的時候,就該沉浸在世界的美麗之中」。這種意識型態活脫就是「夢想生活的情慾賁張」,且在其背後隱藏著雙重意涵,一是要去誘惑、折磨那些過不起這種生活的人們,而其二就是要讓他們自責受挫,認為自己為何不能像那些人一樣「想走就走」。
It’s a way for the upper classes to pat themselves on the back for being able to do something that, quite literally, anyone with money can buy. Traveling for the sake of travel is not an achievement, nor is it guaranteed to make anyone a more cultured, nuanced person. (Some of the most dreadful, entitled tourists are the same people who can afford to visit three new countries each year.) But someone who has had the extreme privilege (yes, privilege) of getting out there and traveling extensively while young is not any better, wiser, or more worthy than the person who has stayed home to work multiple jobs to get the hope of one day landing a job that the traveler will assume is a given. It is entirely a game of money and access, and acting as though “worrying about money” on the part of the person with less is some sort of trivial hangup only adds profound insult to injury.
「為了旅行而旅行」只不過就是上層階級彼此自我標榜的行為,不過他們卻沒有意識到這只不過是另一項「只要有錢就能做到」的事情。出國旅行本身稱不上是成就,也不保證會讓你變成更有文化、更與眾不同的人(有些最駭人、最有聲名的遊客也就是那種每年都有辦法去三個新國家觀光的族群);同樣的,趁年輕出國旅行並不表示你更有智慧、更成功、更高人一等,那只代表你有錢有優勢、有資源這樣做而已。那些非常努力、身兼數職才能得到那些經常出國旅行的人覺得理所當然屬於他們的工作的那些人,就真的較低下嗎?出國旅行完全就只是個金錢跟門路的遊戲,卻有人把實質上深深困擾多數人的經濟問題,講成「瑣碎不重要的小事」,這只會加深社會的貧富傷口。
I was able to travel, and even though I paid for my life abroad with my own work, it was still a result of a healthy amount of privilege. I was from a middle-class family who I did not need to support or help financially, I knew that I could always slink back to their couch if things didn’t work out, and I had managed to accrue a bit of savings while living at home for the few months before I left. There are millions of people who have none of these things, and even if they wanted to pay for travel on their own, would simply not be able to because of the responsibility or poverty they lived with. For even my modest ability to see the world, I am eternally grateful.
我曾經出國旅行,但即使我是自食其力的工作賺旅費出遊,我知道這一切終究還是一種特權,這都是因為我來自一個中產階級的家庭。我不需要在金錢上去資助或協助家裡,就算狀況再怎麼壞,我至少都有爸媽家的沙發可以回去依靠,況且我外出旅遊前我也能藉由住在家裡擠個月來利用利息累積身上的存款。可是這世界上有成千上萬的人沒有我所具備的上述條件,而且即便是他們想要自費出國「見見世面」,也會因為他們與生俱來的責任感或窮困而裹足不前。因此對於能夠出去見識這個世界的小小能力,我一直心懷感激。
And what’s more, I understand (perhaps even better after having traveled a good amount) that nothing about your ability or inability to travel means anything about you as a person. Some people are simply saddled with more responsibilities and commitments, and less disposable income, whether from birth or not. And someone needing to stay at a job they may not love because they have a family to take care of, or college to pay for, or basic financial independence to achieve, does not mean that they don’t have the same desire to learn and grow as someone who travels. They simply do not have the same options, and are learning and growing in their own way, in the context of the life they have. They are learning what it means to work hard, to delay gratification, and to better yourself in slow, small ways. This may not be a backpacking trip around Eastern Europe, but it would be hard to argue that it builds any less character.
更甚者,我了解到(也許是在經歷了好一些旅行之後變得更加了解),一個人有沒有出國旅行的經驗,根本就跟你是什麼樣的人沒有關連。不論是否天生如此,有些人就是肩負著更多的責任和承諾,以及較少能自由分配的收入。而且也是有人因為要養家活口、或是還學貸、還是要盡早達到經濟獨立,所以選擇留在自己可能不喜愛的工作崗位上,不去旅行。這並不表示他們想要學習跟成長的渴望輸給那些常旅行的人。這只不過是他們沒有相同的選擇,而改用他們所擁有的生命型態自我學習與成長而已。他們學習的課題是努力工作的意義,學習先苦後甘,慢慢地,以細微的方式讓自己變更好。這聽起來固然不像東歐背包行一樣酷炫,但是無法否認這樣做也能形塑同等的人格特質。
Encouraging that person to “not worry about money,” or to “drop everything and follow their dreams,” demonstrates only a profound misunderstanding about what “worrying” actually means. What the condescending traveler means by “not worrying” is “not making it a priority, or giving it too much weight in your life,” because on some level they imagine you are choosing an extra dollar over an all-important Experience. But the “worrying” that is actually going on is the knowledge that you have no choice but to make money your priority, because if you don’t earn it — or decide to spend thousands of it on a trip to Southeast Asia to find yourself — you could easily be out on the streets. Implying that this is in any way a one-or-the-other choice for millions of Americans is as naive as it is degrading.
在鼓勵別人「別擔心錢」或是「拋開一切,來去追夢」的行為背後,表現出來的是一種對於為了金錢「擔心」的深刻誤解。那種居高臨下的旅遊鼓吹者說出「別擔心」的同時,意味著「別把錢排在第一位,或是在生活中別把錢看得太重」,因為在他們某種程度的想像裡,你是因為想多省一些錢而放棄了重要的人生體驗。但是對於「真正在擔心錢」的人來說,這其實代表著他們別無選擇而必須把錢擺在第一位,因為要是他們真的狠下心灑錢來去東南亞進行一趟尋找自我之旅,接下來就很有機會流落街頭。把這種真正的「擔心」拿來當成一種這樣也好那樣也好的個人價值觀選擇,不僅是想法太過天真而且還相當地侮辱人。
Everyone needs to forge their own path to financial independence and freedom. And perhaps you are lucky enough that your path involves a lot of wandering around, taking your time, and trying a bunch of new things — because you know that security will be waiting for you at the end of the rainbow. That’s fine, and there is no need to feel guilt or shame over your privilege, if only because it’s unproductive and helps no one. But to encourage people to follow your very rare path, because you feel it is the only way to spiritual enlightenment or meaning, makes you an asshole. It makes you the person who posts vapid “inspirational” quotes that only apply to a tiny percent of the population who already has all the basics covered. And God forbid anyone who needs the money actually does follow that terrible advice, they won’t be like you, traipsing around South America and trying degrees for fun. They will, after their travels are over, be much worse off than when they started. And no souvenir keychain is going to make that reality sting any less.
每個人都需要打造自己通往經濟獨立與自由的前程。也許有些幸運的人們是可以在自己的路途上繞來繞去,好整以暇,還是嘗試些新玩意兒,因為他們知道在彩虹盡頭處也是一片康莊祥和的安全道路在等待著。反正沒有關係,擁有優勢不必感到有罪惡感或深以為恥,就算是這種優勢被利用成並無生產力也沒有對他人產生助益。但是鼓勵別人也走上他們這條稀罕至極的道路,只因為他們認為這是唯一可以通往精神啟蒙、發現人生意義的路,那就真的混帳加三級了。這種心態讓他們淪落成那種發表乏味枯燥勵志小語的人,只能跟一群本來就已經夠有錢的人相互取暖。再說上帝有知也會禁止那些真正需要擔心錢的人聽從這些糟糕的建議,他們可不比有錢的傢伙們,能去漫步遊蕩全南美洲找著各式各樣的樂子。他們在旅程的最後會發現,從另一個地方回來之後,一切變得比出發時還更糟。道時再多的紀念鑰匙圈都拯救不了現實椎心的殘酷。
高雄人 學習英文 請找 多益達人 林立英文
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