🌻美國生活
打了疫苗後, 在上週進城了一趟.
許久未出門的感覺很奇妙. 進了城, 也感到大家的生活還是如往常一般, 只是餐廳沒甚麼人(都用電話下單, 或是當場點了東西後就走), 許多人(並不是全部)的臉上也多了個口罩. 旅館的人倒是不多. 但商家停車場的車子應該如往常一樣, 沒有減少.
每次進城, 也一定會到Chipotle打牙祭. 這次試了他們新的飯(參雜了cauliflower花椰菜), 酸酸滋味, 配上原來burrito裡面就有的料, 真的是開胃又好吃, 一口接一口.
最近吃了三家不同的burrito, 還是覺得Chipotle的最好吃. 我想原因之一(不知道我的觀察有沒有誤), 可能是他們把不同口感的配料加在一起時, 有多家一道手續, 讓新鮮脆口的生菜, 烤熟的肉類, sour cream與其他配料均勻地被融合起來, 也讓滋味豐富了起來. 不像其他家的burrito, 一口咬下去, 就是飯, 或是豆類, 分得很清楚, 而沒有不同食材所帶來的多層次的口感.
Anyway. 附上這次進城照的幾張照片在下方.
🌻My happiness project: 年報財報導讀
股市對我來說像戰場; 年報財報就像是兵書. 而一家家公司的年報財報, 對我來說, 就像是故事書一樣, 述說著公司的成長營運軌跡. 做了這些功課後, 持股也會有信心. "Buy and do homework," 是我認為投資該有的態度.
下半年時間比較多, 所以想抽一點時間出來, 跟對看年報財報有興趣的投資人一起來讀資料, 順便藉此分享我是如何抓重點&透過年報財報來做思考的. 也想要藉此來宣揚看年報財報的好處&消除投資人對英文年報財報可能會有的恐懼感. Anyway. 這只是初步的想法. 若要實行也會是九月的事情了.
不過先錄了一段影片, 解釋我是怎麼做財報內容&電話會議內容整理的: https://youtu.be/vvkrs6CiWdw
🌻本周做的功課與閱讀
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/05/blog-post_19.html
這次的閱讀中, 跟成長股比較有關的是這段. 目前成長股也被重新定價中, 所以建議成長股投資人在挑股的時候, 盡量找有現金流, 還有獲利的公司.
"That’s true even for the highflying growth stocks that have been getting hit so hard recently—as long as they have earnings. Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research, notes that following large growth selloffs, S&P 500 growth stocks with both free cash flow and expanding margins tend to outperform in the months ahead. That means favoring stocks like ServiceNow (ticker: NOW) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) over shares of Chegg (CHGG) and Twitter (TWTR). “Buy some growth stocks on the selloff, but they have to have positive free cash flow and margin expansion,” Parker says."
🌻投資金句
"I learned that you may be right, but if enough people believe you're wrong the markets can really hurt you." --BlackRock bond chief Rick Rieder
🌻The Future of Work
看到BofA寫的這一段, 覺得挺感動的. 這也是投資的目的之一, 能夠藉著這個方式, 來接觸到世界的脈動.
The Future of Work
Thematic Research
BofA Global Research
bofa.com
May 12: The future of work is not zero-sum between humanity and technology. We believe humans can collaborate with and work alongside robots, rather than be displaced by them, and that technology can create more jobs than it destroys. By 2025 alone, the WEF [World Economic Forum] thinks automation will add 12 million net new jobs, with robots eliminating 85 million jobs but creating 97 million new ones. Other grounds for optimism include: (1) 65% of children starting school today will work in jobs that have not been invented yet; (2) “new” collar jobs will be generated from well-placed thematic sectors like healthcare, renewables, new mobility, or even moonshot technologies; and (3) we might actually be more productive and have more leisure time if robots can relieve us of more mundane, repetitive everyday tasks. We have identified $14 trillion in market cap of enablers for the future of work. Technology, industrials, and medtech are some key beneficiaries. We also see opportunities in education and the upskilling/retraining of workers by corporates. Conversely, commercial real estate/offices and legacy transport are some of the sectors facing headwinds...
So, what are the truly futuristic jobs that could be invented? Data-privacy managers, nanomedicine surgeons, lab-meat scientists, blockchain strategists, space-tourist guides, freelance biohackers, AI avatar designers, 3D food-printer chefs, leisure-time planners, ethical algorithm programmers, and brain simulation specialists, to name but a few.
🌻Dividend Growers’ Allure
這段從股息的角度, 來講解傳統價值股跟成長股的不同處.
Dividend Growers’ Allure
Insights & Commentaries
Washington Crossing Advisors
washingtoncrossingadvisors.com
May 10: Buy quality stocks that increase dividends regularly. This simple strategy takes a long-term view of investing and focuses on the dividend, not the stock price. Passive income generated from dividend growth has two main benefits. First, it focuses your investment strategy on cash-generating, growing companies. Second, it tends to lead to quality businesses that are neither too young nor too old.
Why is this so? Almost by definition, a dividend-growing company tends to cover expenses with rising cash flow. And which companies do these tend to be? They tend to be profitable, established companies in the middle of their corporate life cycle. By contrast, young companies tend to be burning cash, constantly in need of capital, and face a higher risk of failure. Such young firms tend to not pay dividends at all as they are consumed with growth. On the other hand, older companies often funnel most or all cash to investors as dividends because viable investments can no longer be found. These firms are often in decline and offer little growth, often reflected in a high current yield.
Picture:
1. Chipotle內部. 可以看到有個取餐的架子. 餐廳人員也不時在電腦螢幕前, 看進來的訂單, 備菜.
2. 旅館外一區. 面向密西根湖.
3. CSX, Union Pacific的火車廂(這兩家都有上市)
chipotle stock 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最佳解答
🌻好文分享
現在科技股, 尤其是尖牙股(FAANG), 飆得讓人怕怕. 尤其今天盤後公布財報的Microsoft(MSFT), 還有上週公佈財報的Netflix(NFLX), 在盤後都跌了一下.
該怎麼辦呢? 這段話覺得挺好. 供參:
“ Many active investors justify the valuations of technology giants by using huge revenue trajectories over decade-plus timelines and focusing on the cost and competitive benefits of achieving dominant scale. This low interest rate environment further helps them defend premium valuations. I think your investment philosophy will dictate your comfort with that approach. Philosophical differences aside, I believe investors in those companies fail to recognize that the widespread popularity of these stocks may undermine the long-term success of the investments. Most alpha (return above a benchmark) from information technology stocks comes from multiple re-rating. An already well-liked stock has little room for an upward rerating, but plenty of downside risk if the company disappoints. Widely favored stocks carry with them substantial mis-execution risk that investors often overlook.”
文字來源:
https://www.causewaycap.com/insight/value-opportunities-in-technology/
(這整篇文章我納入我的blog, 也劃了重點. 值得一看. 連結在下. 也有提到怎麼從這次的疫情中尋找投資機會. 若有地方看不懂, 可以使用google translator, 或是問我.)
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2020/07/a-value-investor-uncovers-opportunities.html
🌻投資idea
今天盤後Chipotle(CMG)發表財報了. 新聞連結:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/chipotle-mexican-grill-cmg-q2-2020-earnings.html
App排名很前面的餐飲業可以研究(連結如下). 之前經過一家速食店, 有至少一個多小時, 外送的車道都很長. Lockdown每天煮飯真的是會瘋掉.
See the top 50 most popular iPhone food & drink mobile apps in Apple App Store in United States based on App Store ranking.
https://www.similarweb.com/apps/top/apple/store-rank/us/food-and-drink/top-free/iphone/
🌻投資idea
折扣零售店的新聞最近常常看到. Ollie Bargain Outlets (OLLI)
這家可以研究. 之前CEO在Thanksgiving突然去世, 換了CEO, 而之前公司也因為拓展太快, 出了點問題. 不過這些都不是大問題. 但要確定高層是否言行一致. 提供一新聞連結給您做研究的起頭:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ollies-bargain-issues-q2-view-114711935.html
另一家可研究的折扣零售店是Dollar General (DG).
🌻未來投資idea
記得從書上看過, ARM Holdings是一家很好的公司(希望還是沒變). 到時候若真的上市, 可研究/投資:
彌補願景基金虧損!軟銀打算賣掉ARM,或在明年內上市:
https://www.bnext.com.tw/article/58461/arm-softbank-vision-fund-ipo
🌻婚姻. 友情.
昨天Snap發表財報了. 每次聽到這家公司, 都忍不住想起了CEO漂亮的太太Miranda Kerr(米蘭達凱爾).
當股友說, 這次CEO的發言讓他有點改觀, 我在想, 是不是Miranda有幫夫運呢?
她跟前夫Orlando Bloom離婚的原因? ‘We weren’t bringing out the best in each other(我們沒有讓對方變的更好)’. 所以可能她幫Snap CEO激發了潛能?
-->所以夫妻間真的要互相幫忙成長. 朋友間也是如此. 您認為呢?
https://www.marieclaire.co.uk/entertainment/people/miranda-kerr-orlando-bloom-divorce-535651
Picture出處:
https://www.msn.com/en-au/entertainment/other/evan-spiegel-admires-how-wife-miranda-kerr-co-parents-with-ex-orlando-bloom/ar-BB16Kefi
chipotle stock 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最佳解答
[如何讀劵商報告?]
[哪家美股劵商網站有好的個股分析報告?]
分享一篇好的文章(如何讀劵商報告). 劵商報告真的是寶.....如果有機會拿到, 能夠盡量看, 真的是有益無害, 因為可以藉此去驗證自己的想法, 也可以訓練自己的思維.
"優秀的 sell side 分析師通常會在其中一個層面很厲害,尤其是做投資研究這方面,畢竟這個透過經驗累積可以建構起來。"
"不過如果能了解每個人在想什麼,搭配獨立思考的分析流程,你對投資的判斷勝率是有可能提升的".
文章連結:
https://freddy-chen.com/2019/08/11/how-to-read-broker-reports/
關於文中的Credit Suisse(瑞士信貸)的報告, 其實不難拿到. 美國劵商網站如TDAmeritrade, Etrade都有跟他們合作. 而這些網站也會有Credit Suisse出的initial report(投行剛開始cover某家公司時, 所寫的長篇報告. 不過我不確定能不能找到幾年前做的initial report.)
至於我喜歡那家劵商報告, 這樣我好看個股基本面的資料呢?
我有三個可以看分析報告的劵商網站: Etrade, First Trade, 還有TDAmeritrade. 就個股分析報告來說:
Etrade跟TDAmeritrade都不錯.
不過我最近開始用了Etrade後, 喜歡上了Etrade, 因為他們還有Morningstar的報告.
Etrade也會把TipRank上面分析師的看法做了整理(請見附圖) (其實這些網路上爬一爬就可以找到公開的資訊, 但他們整理的很好. 像Piper Jaffrary分析師的"Read Article"那一欄, 就是連結到Barron'的文章: https://www.barrons.com/articles/chipotle-stock-could-hit-1-000-analyst-says-51564584877)
至於很多人喜歡用的First Trade, 我其實不那麼喜歡, 雖然他們沒有交易手續費, 也有Morningstar的報告, 但我發現(兩次)大盤大跌的時候, 網站很難進得去(不是只有我有這感覺).
供參.
chipotle stock 在 Pin on Cookbook - Pinterest 的推薦與評價
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