關於 amazon earning ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

台股遇到黑天鵝了，在過去經驗，於現在這個經濟擴張階段，遇到黑天鵝時，台股的跌幅會是多少?

近期股市受到亞洲新冠疫情、科技股重挫的影響，指數波動較大，以科技類股思柏達科技指數ETF(XLK)為例，2019年XLK指數報酬達47.9%、2020年新冠疫情情間，指數再漲41.8%，而今年科技類股受到公債殖利率影響而呈現修正，但我們也統計過，以過去經驗，10年期公債殖利率上漲或下跌，理論上對科技股影響應不太大，但這次市場將公債殖利率與科技股掛勾聯想在一起，主要是科技股過去漲幅過大，加上科技是新冠疫情受惠股，等到市場預期新冠疫情逐漸緩和，部份相關電子需求下降。而價值類股是新冠疫情受害者，過去因疫情受影響股價呈現下挫，一旦疫情逐漸控制，需求回升，股價自然呈現反彈，所以，可以看得到近期科技與價值類股表現呈現兩極的現象。

此時更要掌握景氣的趨勢，之前說過「老人遛狗理論」，小狗即是股市，會因為黑天鵝事件(如2010年歐債危機等事件)而跑來跑去，最後，在老人的呼喚下小狗會跑回主人身邊。所以，我們要看過去經濟表現與大盤波動的情況，如表1所示以美國經濟循環為基礎，統計經濟在擴張時期與收縮時期大盤的表現，而台灣是淺碟經濟，台股大盤除了國內政策影響，也容易受到美股漲跌的影響。以下統計分析不同時期大盤表現。

經濟處於收縮時期，觀察美股、台股大盤的變化，如圖1以2000年網路泡沫化時期為例，在1999年當時美國經濟已經有過熱的現象，以美國產出缺口(附註1)來衡量，實際產出已經過超潛在產出，顯然美國有物價上漲壓力，於是1999年6月前聯準會主席葛林斯潘開始升息，利率從4.75%一路攀升至2000年5月的6.5%。此時，泡沫標地-網路公司，市場評價以未來成長性來看，不管公司是否有獲利，以「本夢比」(附註2)來評價公司，資金一窩蜂流入.COM的公司，例如，亞馬遜公司(Amazon)，公司獲利從1995〜2002年都是負值，而股價在1999年底達到最高106.6美元，之後泡沫被戳破後，2001年9月股價僅剩5.97美元。此時，S&P 500指數從2000年3月的1552，下跌至2002年11月的768，跌幅約5成。而台股大盤跟隨美股下挫，從2000年2月的10393下跌至2001年9月的3411，跌幅約67%。而過去經濟處於收縮時期的還有2008年美國次級房貸風暴與2020年全球新冠疫情擴散。

經濟處於擴張時期，觀察美股、台股大盤的變化，如圖1以2011年8月美國債信評等被調降為例，當時美國總統歐巴馬為了提高債務上限(附註3)問題與國會協商，但在協商過程中兩黨各有不同的意見，直到最後一刻白宮與國會達成預算協議，化解債務上限危機。但也顯示當時美國政府的效率、穩定性與政策可預測性偏低，所以，國際信評公司標準普爾(Standard and Poor’s ,S&P)調降美國債信評等，將美國長期債信評等由「AAA」調降為「AA+」，債信展望「負面」。此時，S&P 500指數從2011年7月的1345，下跌至2011年10月的1099，跌幅約18.0%。而台股大盤跟隨美股下挫，從2011年7月的8817下跌至2011年12月的6633，跌幅約24.5%。而過去經濟於擴張時期，因黑天鵝事件造成股市跌幅較大的有2003年SARS危機、2010年歐債危機、2015年人民幣大幅貶值引發市場動盪、2018年美中貿易戰等。所以即使經濟處於擴張期，還是會有許多黑天鵝事件來影響市場。

我們統計自2000年以來，若經濟處於收縮時期，S&P 500指數在此時期，高低點測量平均跌幅約5成(台股大盤平均跌幅約6成)，除了2020年新冠疫情期間，歐美國家採大量財政與貨幣政策，促使股市大幅V型反彈，當時美股跌幅約34.5%(台股大盤跌幅約3成)。若經濟處於擴張時期，遇到黑天鵝事件，造成股市的動盪，S&P 500指數在此時間，高低點測量平均跌幅約16%，台股大盤平均跌幅約2成，最大跌幅約25%。

------------------------------------------------
附註：
1. 產出缺口：經濟發展當中，景氣上下起伏波動，通常稱為「經濟周期」，我們不僅關心景氣起伏波動，還關心一個國家中長期經濟發展的潛能。景氣起伏波動大小以GDP(Gross Domestic Product)來衡量，即為國內生產毛額，又稱之「實際產出水準」，美國經濟分析局(U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis) 每季都會公佈GDP成長，而台灣則是主計總處公佈，大約落在每年1、4、7、10月月底，公佈上季GDP成長的情況。而一個國家中長期經濟發展的潛能即為「潛在產出水準」，美國國會預算辦公室(Congressional Budget Office)會去設算，而台灣則是央行在舉行理監事會議時將會公佈GDP長期趨勢值與實際值之間的走勢。所謂的產出缺口即為「潛在產出水準減實際產出水準」之間的差距，可以想像當一個國家實際產出已經超過潛在產能的水準，則物價上漲的壓力就會比較大，反之亦然。以目前數值來看，美國產出缺口正在縮小但仍為負值，而台灣在3月18日央行理監事會後記者會簡報中描述台灣經濟成長由「Nike型」復甦轉呈「V型」復甦，台灣產出缺口趨於零。

2. 本夢比：顧名思義是與本益比PE(Price to Earning Ratio )來做對照，所謂「本夢比」是形容公司沒有獲利還處與虧損狀態，僅靠未來成長想像空間，推升股價走勢，在2000年網際網路盛行時所發展出來的名詞，形容當時一堆網際網路公司沒有獲利，市場資金卻一窩蜂流入.COM的公司，等到泡沫被戳破，這些公司不是消失，就是股價僅剩個位數。

3.債務上限：債務限額(debt limit)或稱債務上限(debt ceiling)，美國國會為了限制美國政府浮濫支出，將會限制總債務額度。但每當美國政府達到總債務上限，就會要求國會提高上限，否則將會無法取得足多的資金支撐美國政府的運作或償還債務。自1960年以來，美國國會已經採取78次來提高債務上限。

全文參考：
https://www.pressplay.cc/link/16449465AD?oid=AE5E0E9AB0

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Continue ReadingAll tech companies are heading into game business / invest manly
The technology industry is undoubtedly driving the world.
Because, wherever you look, things surrounding us are all related to technology companies.

Amazon provides e-commerce platforms
Alphabet, Google's mom company, search website, information.
Apple sells electronic devices such as iPhone, iPad
Facebook dominates social media platforms market.
Microsoft Develops Operating Systems and Computer Software

But did you know that there is one thing these companies are paying attention to?
That's the ′′ game business

What are tech companies doing about the game industry now?
Invest man will tell you about it.
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First start at Amazon

Amazon company has invested in the game business since 2014 after acquiring Twitch business, online video platform, game containers with 29,000 million baht.

Passing through now, Twitch has grown beyond the competitors clearly.
9,340 million hours a year videos are viewed by 73 % of the market.

In addition, they have a business called Amazon Web Services (AWS) that provides cloud database storage, which major game developers such as Bandai, Capcom, Epic Games, Supercell, Zynga are the company's customers.

Meaning that every time people play online, AWS services are also being used.
And most importantly, this business has much higher profit margins than E-commerce.

Next one is Alphabet

The company owns YouTube, the world's biggest online video platform, with about 250 million game-related followers per day.

In addition, YouTube has also launched a YouTube Gaming feature to support streaming games especially.
There are 2,681 million hours of video viewing per year. The market share of 21 % is the number 2, secondary from Twitch.

But what creates a lot of excitement for the industry.
Is Launching a cloud gaming platform business named Stadia at the end of 2019

This service may change the gaming patterns as we can buy games immediately. No need to download, install or need to use a good, expensive spectrum. Stadia will process and adjust the game quality details to suit the devices that people. Play and use.

The next company to talk about is Apple

In fact, indirect income game for Apple.
In 2019, there are people who spend in game application via App Store. App Store is about 1.2 trillion Baht. It is 70 % of all apps. Every 100 Baht will receive a share of 30 Baht.

Apple decided to expand its business to the gaming industry.
By launching an online gaming platform called Apple Arcade

Subscription subscriber, 150 baht per month. You can choose to play any game on every device of Apple brand.

There is an assessment that in the next 2 years, there will be around 50 million accounts of Apple Arcade users who will make additional income for the company over 93,000 million baht per year.

Another interesting one is Facebook.

Facebook has launched a 2018 Facebook Gaming online video feature.
Focusing on connecting to social media user base to create an advantage for people to follow contents easily under the same platform.

The company reveals 700 million video game visitors per month.
However, compared to the number of hours, Facebook Gaming also has a market share of only 3 %

But in the future, Facebook may develop new businesses similar to Google's Stadia.
Because I just bought PlayGiga business, cloud-based platform from Spain for 2,400 million baht.

And the eye-catching thing is Oculus VR owned by VR, a virtual reality technology developer with a high chance of making Facebook create successful virtual reality gaming devices.

The last part is Microsoft

Microsoft has been in the gaming business since 2001, as an Xbox gaming console developer that currently has total sales of more than 155 million machines.

And in 2016, the company launched a streaming platform named Mixer.
But the response is not as expected. There is only 3 % market share.

Get Microsoft to turn off this platform this July and rock the account with Facebook Gaming instead to collaborate with Twitch and YouTube.

In addition, Microsoft is also undergoing a cloud gaming business development. It is expected to be launched by XCloud this year.

All of them have businesses involved in gaming either way or anyhow.

But I have to say..
No matter how fierce the competition is, no one can compete with the real game owner like Tencent, Chinese tech company.

Because they have created or invested in a loud game with many players around the world like Fortnite, PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds, Arena of Valor (RoV), League of Legends, Honor of Kings, Clash of Clans

Resulting in Tencent reigning the industry's highest position. Earning up to 612,000 million baht from the game business.

Arrived here. Many people may wonder why the game market is so interesting in the eyes of tech companies?

What these companies need is inevitable bringing their technology into consumer hands to build a strong user base.

Gaming business is becoming a very large industry.
From the world population of 7,800 million people, there are 2,700 million people playing games or around 35 %
Covering people of all ages and all devices whether it's mobile, computer or game console.

So, the game market is worth up to 4.7 trillion baht and it predicts that the number will grow to 6.2 trillion baht in 2023

The special thing is gaming people always pay to buy unlimited items or features.
Different from other markets where customers may buy limited amounts of money or subscription payments which are always the same.

And the company can also offer products to customers directly in real time. When order happens, players get items immediately. Game owners get paid at the same time.

While buying normally, consumers may have to shop at the mall or wait for delivery later. The seller may have a central or multi-layer dealer to get paid and also to manage inventory.

Including game owners and players can also do game-changing activities such as gamecast reviews or serious Esports to win prize money.

This is not surprising if it says in the near future, the game market where humans pay virtual purchases.
Could be bigger than any physical product market that is tangible..
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References
-https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/28/tech/google-stadia-apple-arcade-mixer-gaming/index.html
-https://www.protocol.com/tech-gaming-amazon-facebook-microsoft
-https://www.geekwire.com/2019/microsofts-mixer-grows-audience-amazons-twitch-continues-dominate-streaming-market/
-https://aws.amazon.com/gametech/
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_game_consoles
-https://www.reuters.com/article/esports-business-gaming-revenues/report-gaming-revenue-to-top-159b-in-2020-idUSFLM8jkJMl
-https://www.digitalinformationworld.com/2020/01/global-consumers-spent-over-83-billion-on-mobile-apps-in-the-last-12-months.html
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tencent#Video_games
-https://www.statista.com/statistics/983227/global-video-games-revenue-companies/Translated

Stand and Guard your Gift of Righteousness

“Therefore put on the whole armor of God, that you may be able to withstand in the evil day, and, having done all, to stand. Stand therefore, having the utility belt of truth buckled around your waist, and having put on the breastplate of righteousness,” (Ephesians‬ ‭6:13-14‬‬)

If you’re a born-again Christian, the devil and his demons knows it—you have a mark of God on your forehead, visible in the spirit.

The devil knows you are already righteous in Christ and don’t need to struggle to receive any blessings.

However his scheme is to move you away from relying on the gift of righteousness, to performing works for righteousness.

He wants you to frustrate the grace of God and nullify what Jesus did for you—that puts you under the curse of the Law again.

The apostle Paul told us to stand. You already have the gift of righteousness through faith in Jesus Christ, so stand firmly on this truth.

Don’t let the devil trick you into moving away from the foundation of faith in Jesus’ finished work at the cross, because that is your only basis for receiving every one of God’s blessings.

Satan will say anything to get you chasing something else for your righteousness. Here are some hypothetical examples of his lies:

“You haven’t prayed long and hard enough. Others are on their knees praying and you’re here playing games? What a disgrace!”

“You haven’t tried fasting to get blessings. Look at that faithful man who fasted 40 days! And what are you doing? Sitting here on the couch and eating potato chips? No wonder you’re not blessed!”

“You are ignorant about God’s word. You need to read the whole Bible first before God will bless you. Why are you reading this gossip rubbish online? If you were really righteous, you wouldn’t even want to do this.”

Satan is an expert at mixing in some truth with some lies. It sounds very convincing to the flesh, but the condemnation and attempts at earning righteousness really produces a defeated Christian.

When you start thinking this way, “I must do more of ___, so that God will bless me with ___”, you have unconsciously come under works-based righteousness which places you under the curse of the Law.

Sure—praying, fasting and reading God’s word are wonderful and good, but not if you’re trying to use them to become more righteous before God so that you can be blessed.
These spiritual activities are ways for us to enter the state of faith without unbelief, so that we can simply believe and speak to have God’s blessings.

The more we hear the good news of Jesus Christ, the more we will desire to talk to God (pray), become more sensitive to His Spirit (through fasting), and knowing who we are and what we have in Christ (by reading God’s word).

“For if by the trespass of the one, death reigned through the one; so much more will those who receive the abundance of grace and of the gift of righteousness reign in life through the one, Jesus Christ.” (Romans‬ ‭5:17‬ ‭WEB‬)

You already have the gift of righteousness and God’s grace is constantly being supplied into your life. Stand on this firm foundation and don’t allow Satan to trick you into abandoning this priceless treasure that you’ve received.

In my new book “Messiah’s Miracles—The Power of Having Faith in Jesus Christ”, I expound on every one of Jesus’ 37 recorded miracles in the four gospels.

Each chapter is designed to ignite your faith and increase expectancy in your heart to receive miracles now.

I believe that as you see Jesus working miracles in the four gospels, unveiling God’s heart of love, goodness and mercy towards man, you will also receive faith to see miracles in every area of your life!
You will also be able to walk in the power of God when you expect to see the supernatural gifts in operation.

Testimonials for the book:

“One of my most trusted teachers has truly written a masterpiece. I can't put this book down.”
- Michael Clark, Highly Sought-After Preacher in USA

“Thank you, Milton for the anointed sharing of the 37 miracles of Jesus. Right from the 1st miracle, God dropped fresh revelations of His heart to me. It wasn't head knowledge that I experienced. I felt His personality, His loving heart's intents towards me. On top of that, there's also revelation of His healing power. Praise Jesus for transforming my heart and bringing me closer to Him through Milton's sharing.”
- Ann Tan, GEM patron from Singapore

Get the paperback (hardcopy) edition on Amazon:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0849Z3J7Y

Get the Kindle edition on Amazon:
https://www.amazon.com/Messiahs-Miracles-Power-Having-Christ-ebook/dp/B084C56QZQ

Get the digital eBook edition on my website:
https://www.miltongoh.net/store/p21/messiahs-miracles-the-power-of-having-faith-in-jesus-christ-milton-goh.html

#Jesus #MessiahsMiracles

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Bag Thrifted

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Shrug (Cut + Sewn myself) but this is similar https://go.magik.ly/ml/106u5/
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O U T F I T #8
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Millionaire Mentor Dan Lok explains to you what is high-income skill and why you should consider to learn it. Watch more: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZrWTgiML48&list=PLEmTTOfet46OWsrbWGPnPW8mvDtjge_6-

Watch this video until the end to find out why it is important for you to master at least one high-income skill.
✒️Click Here to read the blog article✒️
https://danlok.com/videos/examples-of-high-income-skills-that-can-make-you-a-fortune/

★☆★BONUS FOR A LIMITED TIME★☆★
You can download Dan Lok's best-selling book F.U. Money for FREE: http://highincomeskills.danlok.link


★☆★ SUBSCRIBE TO DAN'S YOUTUBE CHANNEL NOW ★☆★
https://www.youtube.com/user/vanentrepreneurgroup?sub_confirmation=1

Watch Wealth Triangle Video Referred to in the Beginning of this video here: https://youtu.be/hjgN-K_b7nk

Check out these Top Trending Playlist:
1.) How to Sell High Ticket Products & Services: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEmTTOfet46PlgDZSSo-gxM8ahZ9RtNQE

2.) The Art of High Ticket Sales - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEmTTOfet46NufVkPfYhpUJAD1OBoQEEd

3.) Millionaire Mindset - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEmTTOfet46O591glMGzRMoHaIJB-bQiq

Dan Lok, a.k.a. The King of High-Ticket Sales is one of the highest-paid and most respected consultants in the luxury and “high-ticket” space.

Dan is the creator of High-Ticket Millions Methodology™, the world's most advanced system for getting high-end clients and commanding high fees with no resistance.

Dan works exclusively with coaches, consultants, thought leaders and other service professionals who want a more sustainable, leveraged lifestyle and business through High-Ticket programs and Equity Income.

Dan is one of the rare keynote speakers and business consultants that actually owns a portfolio of highly profitable business ventures.

Not only he is a two times TEDx opening speaker, he's also an international best-selling author of over 12 books and the host of Shoulders of Titans show.

Dan's availability is extremely limited. As such, he's very selective and he is expensive (although it will be FAR less expensive than staying where you are).

Many of his clients are seeing a positive return on their investments in days, not months.

But if you think your business might benefit from one-on-one interaction with Dan, visit http://danlok.com



★☆★ WANT TO OWN DAN'S BOOKS? ★☆★
http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Lok/e/B002BLXW1K

★☆★ NEED SOLID ADVICE? ★☆★

Request a call with Dan:
https://clarity.fm/danlok


★☆★ CONNECT WITH DAN ON SOCIAL MEDIA ★☆★

Blog: http://www.danlok.com/blog/
Podcast: http://www.shouldersoftitans.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/danthemanlok
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/danlok/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/vanentrepreneurgroup
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/danlok
Meetup: http://www.meetup.com/Vancouver-Entrepreneurs-Group-Business-Network/
Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Lok/e/B002BLXW1K


This video is about: What Are Some Examples Of High-Income Skills
https://youtu.be/cEk8Ny4ey0E
https://youtu.be/cEk8Ny4ey0E

Money goes to people who don't need it. Watch the whole series here: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEmTTOfet46PHB5PQ7BaAzJmLpy0vpICa
Watch this video until the end to find out why saving money is also important in investing.

★☆★BONUS FOR A LIMITED TIME★☆★
You can download Dan Lok's best-selling book F.U. Money for FREE: http://richbudget.danlok.link

Pay Attention as Dan breaks down How to Live Like The Rich While On a Budget.

★☆★ SUBSCRIBE TO DAN'S YOUTUBE CHANNEL NOW ★☆★
https://www.youtube.com/user/vanentrepreneurgroup?sub_confirmation=1

You Can spend money, Enjoy Life as long as...

1. Your First Goal: Every Year, you keep increasing your earning ability (High Income Skill) by at least 10%
2. Your Second Goal: You will save more than you saved last year.
3. Your Third Goal: Every Year, you will increase the amount you save in terms of the percent of your income.

Save More, Much More:
- If you are making less than $50,000 a year, SAVE 10%
-If you are making $50,000 or more, but less than $200,000, SAVE 15%
-If you are making $200,000 or more, but less than $500,000, SAVE 25%
-If you are making a half a million or more, but less than $2,000,000, SAVE 35%
-If you are making $2,000,000 or more, but less than $5,000,000, SAVE 40%
-If you are making $5,000,000 or more, SAVE 50%

Final Points:
- Don't Train your mind to have scarcity and fear about money vs the Abundance Mindset
-Money Comes to you when you don't need it.
-You can't get rich looking poor

Make sure to post a Comment and Share to someone who you feel needs to hear this.

★☆★ SUBSCRIBE TO DAN'S YOUTUBE CHANNEL NOW ★☆★
https://www.youtube.com/user/vanentrepreneurgroup?sub_confirmation=1

Check out these Top Trending Playlist:
1.) How to Sell High Ticket Products & Services: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEmTTOfet46PlgDZSSo-gxM8ahZ9RtNQE

2.) The Art of High Ticket Sales - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEmTTOfet46NufVkPfYhpUJAD1OBoQEEd

3.) Millionaire Mindset - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEmTTOfet46O591glMGzRMoHaIJB-bQiq

Dan Lok, a.k.a. The King of High-Ticket Sales is one of the highest-paid and most respected consultants in the luxury and “high-ticket” space.

Dan is the creator of High-Ticket Millions Methodology™, the world's most advanced system for getting high-end clients and commanding high fees with no resistance.

Dan works exclusively with coaches, consultants, thought leaders and other service professionals who want a more sustainable, leveraged lifestyle and business through High-Ticket programs and Equity Income.

Dan is one of the rare keynote speakers and business consultants that actually owns a portfolio of highly profitable business ventures.

Not only he is a two times TEDx opening speaker, he's also an international best-selling author of over 12 books and the host of Shoulders of Titans show.

Dan's availability is extremely limited. As such, he's very selective and he is expensive (although it will be FAR less expensive than staying where you are).

Many of his clients are seeing a positive return on their investments in days, not months.

But if you think your business might benefit from one-on-one interaction with Dan, visit http://danlok.com

Or consider becoming a member of his high-level mastermind for experts: http://www.danlokinnercircle.com

★☆★ WANT TO OWN DAN'S BOOKS? ★☆★
http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Lok/e/B002BLXW1K

★☆★ NEED SOLID ADVICE? ★☆★

Request a call with Dan:
https://clarity.fm/danlok

★☆★ JOIN DAN'S PRIVATE FB GROUP FOR CONSULTANTS & COACHES ★☆★

Apply here:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/highticketconsulting/

Dan hangs out there quite a bit.

★☆★ CONNECT WITH DAN ON SOCIAL MEDIA ★☆★

Blog: http://www.danlok.com/blog/
Podcast: http://www.shouldersoftitans.com/
FB Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/highticketconsulting/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/danthemanlok
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/danlok/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/vanentrepreneurgroup
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/danlok
Meetup: http://www.meetup.com/Vancouver-Entrepreneurs-Group-Business-Network/
Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Lok/e/B002BLXW1K



This Video is about: How To Live Like The Rich On A Budget - How to Invest Like a Millionaire Ep. 3
https://youtu.be/8W18qcAkVjU
https://youtu.be/8W18qcAkVjU