關於 true one ptt ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

เกิดอะไรขึ้นกับ Apple? มูลค่าเพิ่ม 1.3 ล้านล้านในวันเดียว / โดย ลงทุนแมน

หลายคนคงคิดว่า Apple กำลังตกต่ำ
และสงครามการค้ากำลังทำให้ iPhone ขายไม่ดี
...Continue ReadingWhat happened to Apple? Worth 1.3 trillion in one day / by investing man

A lot of people think apple is down
And the trade war is making iphones sell bad

But after announcing last night's results
The company is worth more than 1.3 trillion baht.
Equivalent TO PTT company The biggest company in Thailand in one day..

Now Apple company worth more than 30.9 trillion baht.
Worth 2 times more than GDP Thailand..

So what happened to Apple?
Invest, man will come to conclude.

Apple company results turn out that fixed income and lower profits

Quarter 3 (Quarter 3 of Apple financial statement period 4-6)
Income 1.64 trillion baht. Profit of 3.55 billion baht.

Quarter 3 Year 2019
Income 1.66 trillion baht. Profit of 3.10 billion baht.

By now, every 100 baht of apple comes from.

Iphone 48 baht
Services 21 baht
Mac 11 baht
Ipad 10 baht
Wearables 10 baht

Showing Apple currently has revenue structure from many businesses

However, the company's main income is also an Iphone 12 % lower compared to the same period as the past year.

But income from services and wearables can grow so well that it makes total income not lower..

Wearables business revenue increased by 48 %
Business Income Services Increase by 13 %

Now Apple's wearables group products are apple airpods and apple watch.

Services group include applecare, Apple music, Icloud, app store and Apple search ads

Apple currently has at least 1 members paid for services.
About 420 million accounts..

When numbers are not as bad as investors think and other income grows, plus by buying Apple's shares, which makes company's profit to grow. These make the stock market respond in a positive direction.

Apple shares rise after announcing 4 % of the result. It's worth up to 1.3 trillion baht.

However, the most important thing for apple now is how long will the existing ecosystem stand..

It's true that in short term, business, wearables and services.
Can grow to replace lost Iphone income

But don't forget these two businesses have the same starting point called " Iphone

Despite the advantages of ecosystem to build the apple brand strong to this day.
But the important disadvantage is to use Apple's wearables or services. It must have iphone before it's a wall for customers outside ecosystem to try.

Did you know that the number of users in android system are clearly distant from Ios?

In every smartphone user, 100 will be divided into

76 people on android
22 people on IOS
2 left is the other system

It means if iphone sales continue to drop
People who buy airpods and other services of Apple are less. Follow along.

Therefore, the headphones, watches or services Apple is investing in.
It may not be as important as getting iphone back to sell well again.

It's interesting if the new Iphone launch will bring the company back again at the end of the year.

If you do well, wearables and services business may grow together as a leap.

On the other hand, if iphone trends continue to recession and continue to focus on other income.

Wonder How Steve Jobes in heaven would agree or not..
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References
-Apple Earnings Call Q3 2019Translated

บ้านไร่กาแฟ หายไปไหน? / โดย เพจลงทุนแมน
ในอดีตบ้านไร่กาแฟเคยเป็นร้านกาแฟอันดับ 2 ของประเทศไทยรองจาก Starbucks และ เคยมีสาขามากถึงเป็นร้อยสาขา แต่ในปัจจุบันเราอาจจะไม่ค่อยเห็นร้านกาแฟนี้แล้ว บ้านไร่กาแฟ หายไปไหน แล้วใครมาแทนที่?

จริงๆแล้วบ้านไร่กาแฟเขียนว่าบ้านใร่กาแฟ ซึ่ง คุณสายชล เพยาว์น้อย เจ้าของร้านจงใจเขียนผิดเพื่อให้สะดุดตา คุณสายชลเป็นคนริเริ่มการขายกาแฟในปั๊มน้ำมัน โดยมีสาขาแรกในปั๊ม ปตท. คลอง 7 ในปี 2540 หรือ 20 ปีที่แล้ว โดยตอนนั้นคุณสายชลได้ขายทาวน์เฮ้าส์ของตัวเอง 3 แสนบาทมาใช้เป็นทุนในการก่อสร้างสาขาแรก โดยใช้ชื่อว่า ใร่กาแฟสด

ตั้งแต่นั้นมาก็ถือเป็นจุดเริ่มต้นของการมีร้านกาแฟในปั๊มน้ำมันของประเทศไทย รวมถึงร้าน Amazon ของ ปตท.เองที่ก่อตั้งขึ้นมาเมื่อปี 2545 หรือ 4 ปีหลังจากการเปิดตัวของบ้านไร่กาแฟสาขาแรกใน ปตท.

ต่อมา ปี 2541 บ้านไร่กาแฟมีปัญหากับปั๊ม ปตท. จึงได้ย้ายไปเปิดในปั๊ม JET ของบริษัทอเมริกาชื่อ CONOCO ถ้าเราจำกันได้ เมื่อก่อนปั๊ม JET มีป้ายสีเหลืองน้ำเงินสะดุดตา ซึ่งเป็นปั๊มที่ขึ้นชื่อเรื่องความสะอาด และเป็นที่ชื่นชอบของคนขับรถที่จะแวะปั๊มนี้อยู่เป็นประจำ

หลังจากนั้นมาก็เริ่มเข้าสู่ยุครุ่งเรืองของบ้านไร่กาแฟ ในปี 2549 บ้านไร่กาแฟใช้เวลาเพียง 8 ปี ขยายร้านได้มากถึง 110 สาขา และมียอดขายมากถึง 140 ล้านบาทต่อปี

แต่การขยายสาขาของบ้านไร่กาแฟมีจุดอ่อนอยู่ข้อหนึ่งก็คือ

สาขาเกือบทั้งหมดของบ้านไร่กาแฟอยู่ในปั๊ม JET..

ในที่สุดฝันร้ายก็เกิดขึ้นกับบ้านไร่กาแฟ

ในปี 2550 CONOCO ประกาศขายกิจการปั๊ม JET ทั้งหมด 147 แห่งในไทยให้ ปตท. ด้วยมูลค่า 9,600 ล้านบาท

ในเมื่อ ปตท. มีร้านกาแฟ Amazon ของเขาเอง จึงได้เขี่ยบ้านไร่กาแฟออกไปจากปั๊ม JET ทุกสาขา แล้วเอา Amazon มาเสียบแทนที่

เรามาดูยอดขายของร้านกาแฟบ้านไร่ และ Amazon ในปัจจุบันกัน

ปี 2558 บ้านไร่กาแฟมีรายได้รวม 33.4 ล้านบาท ต้นทุน 42.7 ล้าน และบริษัทขาดทุน 9.3 ล้านบาท

ส่วนร้านกาแฟ Amazon ของ ปตท. มียอดขายมากถึง 5,400 ล้านบาท หรือมากกว่าบ้านไร่กาแฟ 162 เท่า!

ปัจจุบันร้านกาแฟ Amazon มี 1,500 สาขา ซึ่งเป็นร้านกาแฟที่มีจำนวนสาขามากสุดในประเทศไทย โดยมากกว่า Starbucks ที่มีเพียง 273 สาขา

เรื่องนี้เป็นกรณีศึกษาที่ดีในเรื่องธุรกิจที่ต้องพึ่งพิงคู่ค้ารายใหญ่ เมื่อวันใดที่เราหมดประโยชน์สำหรับเขา เราก็จะถูกเขี่ยออกไปในที่สุด

แล้ว ปั๊ม ปตท. มีร้านอะไรที่อาจจะถูกเขี่ยออกไปอีกหรือไม่?

ที่น่าสนใจคือตอนนี้ เซเว่น อีเลฟเว่น มีสาขาในปั๊ม ปตท. 1,332 สาขา หรือคิดเป็นสัดส่วนมากถึง 14 % ของจำนวนสาขา ทั้งหมดของเซเว่น อีเลฟเว่น

และในตอนที่ซื้อกิจการปั๊ม JET มา ปตท. ได้ของแถมมาด้วยคือกิจการร้านสะดวกซื้อ Jiffy

ถ้าวันใดวันหนึ่งที่แบรนด์ Jiffy ของ ปตท. แข็งแกร่งพอ และ พร้อมที่จะมาขยายสาขาเอง คงปฏิเสธไม่ได้ว่า เซเว่น อีเลฟเว่น คือกระดูกชิ้นโตที่ ปตท.ต้องการเขี่ยออกจากจานข้าวของ ปตท.

แต่ก็คงไม่ต่างอะไรจากที่ เซเว่น อีเลฟเว่น ได้เขี่ยสินค้าของคนอื่น แล้วเอาสินค้าที่เหมือนกันของตัวเองมาขายแทนที่ในร้าน

สรุปแล้วเรื่องนี้สอนให้รู้ว่า ในโลกธุรกิจ อย่าไปคาดหวังกับคำว่า.. เพื่อนแท้

อ่านบทความทั้งหมดของลงทุนแมนได้ที่
https://www.facebook.com/longtunman/posts/131589187373698:0
Where is the coffee farm house? / by page invest man
In the past, ban rai coffee used to be the number 2 Coffee shop in Thailand. Secondary from Starbucks and there were hundreds of branches. But now we may not see this coffee shop. Where is the coffee house? Who replaced?

In fact, ban rai coffee says that the coffee house which khun sai chon peyao noi, the owner of the shop deliberately wrote wrong to stumble on's eyes. Mr. Sai Chon is the initiative to sell coffee in the gas station with the first branch in ptt gas station Khlong 7 in 2540 or 20 years ago. Mr. Sai Chon sold his own townhouse for 3 hundred thousand baht to spend as a capital of the first branch. It is called fresh coffee.

Since then, it's the beginning of having a coffee shop in Thailand's gas station, including PTT's Amazon shop. Self established in 2545 or 4 years after the launch of the first coffee farm house in PTT.

Later in 2541, ban rai coffee has a problem with ptt gas station. So we have moved to an American jet pump named conoco. If we remember, jet pump had a yellow, Blue, which is a pumped, which is the cleanliness and it's favorite driver's favorite to stop by this pump regularly.

After that, I started into the thriving era of coffee farm house in 2549, ban rai coffee only took only 8 years to expand the shop to 110 branches and sales up to 140 million baht per year.

But the ramifications of the coffee farm house has one weakness.

Almost all branches of coffee farm houses are in jet pump..

Finally a nightmare happened to the coffee farm house.

In 2550, conoco announced the sale of 147 JET PUMP BUSINESS IN THAILAND TO PTT. Worth 9,600 million baht

When PTT Got his own Amazon Coffee Shop, so I took the coffee farm house out of every jet pump and put amazon instead.

Let's check out the current sales of coffee shop, farm and Amazon.

Year 2558 ban rai coffee has a total income of 33.4 million baht. Cost 42.7 million and the company losses 9.3 million baht.

Amazon coffee shop section of PTT Sales up to 5,400 million baht or more than coffee farm house!

Amazon coffee shop currently has 1,500 branches which are the most popular coffee shop in Thailand. There are more than Starbucks with only 273 branches.

This is a good case study in business to lean on big partners. When we run out of benefits for him, we will finally be taken away.

How about ptt gas station Is there any more stores that might be taken out?

The interesting thing is that seven eleven now has a branch in ptt gas station. 1,332 branches or think about cuddle % of the total number of seven eleven

And when I bought jet pump business to PTT Got gifts. It's a business. Jiffy Convenience Store.

If one day at the jiffy brand of PTT Strong enough and ready to expand the branch. I can't deny that seven eleven is a big bone at PTT. Want to take it out of PTT's rice plate.

But it's not different than seven eleven. I have taken other people's products and selling their own same products instead of the shop.

In conclusion, this story teaches you that in the business world, don't expect the word.. true friend.

Read the full article of invest man at
https://www.facebook.com/longtunman/posts/131589187373698:0Translated

那個南方叫屏東
屏東的黑鮪魚好ㄘ(〃∀〃)

【2016，這就是台灣人想要的總統！】

「妳回北京以後，告訴他們，」蔡英文說：「台灣的下一任總統曾經為妳服務過。」

（“Go back to Beijing,” says Tsai, “and tell them you were served by the next President of Taiwan.”）

上面那段話，是這幾天來，最讓我感佩與震撼的一段話。那是蔡英文主席接受《TIME》雜誌專訪長文的結語，鏗鏘有力，也讓人無比動容...

2016，我希望我能有幸擁有這樣的總統，一股溫柔的力量，卻又充滿自信與霸氣，不慍不火、不卑不亢，而這正是台灣這個即將新生的島國，用來在世界永續立足，最需要的態度。

朋友們告訴我，昨天附上的《TIME》雜誌英漢對照翻譯文章，已經被下架了。對此，我真的感到非常遺憾。（更新消息：PTT貼文者並非原譯，因恐引起誤會而刪文。原譯文出自獨立記者Jessie Chen臉書，特此致謝。）

對於那篇連夜趕出的翻譯稿，也許不同立場的朋友，會有不同想法與批評。但對於譯者的熱心與用心，我只有發自內心的感激和敬佩。因此，我在網路上找到備份文章，再一次（無修改）分享給我的朋友們，需要的，就幫忙再傳播出去吧！

德不孤必有鄰，一位擅長漫畫的朋友，也默默傳了她關於那段「溫柔力量」談話的圖像詮釋。淡淡的畫風，彷彿原景重現，對我而言，那份感動，似乎又更深了一些...

有人以文字速譯向小英致敬、有人以圖像速寫向小英致敬──

而我，只能藉此臉書一角，向翻譯者、漫畫家，跟小英總統本人，獻上最誠心的祝福與感謝！

謝謝你們，讓台灣變成一個更好更美的地方。
　

──────────底下為英漢對照翻譯原文──────────

民進黨主席暨總統參選人蔡英文登上最新一期時代雜誌封面，標題是「她將可能領導華人世界唯一民主國家， She Could Lead The Only Chinese Democracy」。蔡主席是繼印度總理莫迪、印尼總統佐科威、韓國總統朴槿惠後，最新一位登上時代雜誌封面的亞洲領導人。

中英譯全文：

雜誌封面
She Could Lead the Only Chinese Democracy
And that makes Beijing nervous
她將可能領導華人世界唯一的民主國家
這讓北京感到緊張

目錄頁
Cover Story: Championing Taiwan
Presidential front runner Tsai Ing-wen wants to put the island’s interests first
封面故事：壯大台灣
總統大選領先者蔡英文要將台灣利益置於優先

內頁大標
‘The Next President Of Taiwan’
That’s how Tsai Ing-wen refers to herself. But will the island’s voters agree?
台灣的下一任總統
蔡英文是這樣認為。但是這座島嶼的選民會同意嗎？

內文
Emily Rauhala / 台北報導 Adam Ferguson / 攝影

Tsai Ing-wen is making breakfast. The presidential candidate cracks five eggs and lets them bubble with bacon in the pan. She stacks slices of thick, white toast. It’s a recipe adapted from British chef Jamie Oliver, but the ingredients, she can’t help but say, are pure Taiwan. The meat comes courtesy of Happy Pig, a farm near her spare but tasteful Taipei apartment, the bread from a neighborhood bakery. She offers me an orange. “Organic,” she says, in English. “And local, of course.”

蔡英文正在做早餐。這位總統候選人打了五個蛋，和著平底鍋裡面的培根一起吱吱作響，再把一片片白色的厚片土司疊起來。料理手法學自英國名廚傑米奧利佛（Jamie Oliver），但是她忍不住要說，烹調食材屬於最純粹的台灣原料。培根來自「快樂豬」農場，距離她那簡單卻有品味的公寓不遠，而麵包是從她家附近的烘培坊買來的。她遞了一顆橘子給我，用英文跟我說：「有機的！當然也是在地的。」

This is not an average breakfast for the 58-year-old lawyer turned politician running to become Taiwan’s next President—most days she grabs a coffee and books it to the car. But it is, in many ways, oh so Tsai. The Taipei-raised, U.S.- and U.K.-educated former negotiator wrote her doctoral thesis on international trade law. As a minister, party chair and presidential candidate (she narrowly lost to two-term incumbent Ma Ying-jeou in the 2012 race), Tsai gained a reputation for being wonky—the type who likes to debate protectionism over early-morning sips of black coffee or oolong tea.

對於這位58歲、從律師轉變成政治人物的總統候選人來說，這可不是她平常吃的早餐。她通常隨手抓一杯咖啡在車上喝。不過許多方面來說，這應該可以算是一貫的「蔡式」風格。這位在臺北長大、在英美留學過的談判專家，博士論文寫的是國際貿易法。在她當陸委 會主委、民進黨主席、總統候選人期間（她在2012年的總統大選中以些微差距輸給了馬英九總統），得到學院派的風評──她是那種喜歡在早上喝黑咖啡或烏龍茶時，跟你辯論保護主義的人。

Now, as the early front runner in Taiwan’s January 2016 presidential election, her vision for the island is proudly, defiantly, Taiwan-centric. Tsai says she would maintain the political status quo across the strait with China—essentially, both Taipei and Beijing agreeing to disagree as to which represents the one, true China, leaving the question of the island’s fate to the future. But Tsai wants to put Taiwan’s economy, development and culture first. While Ma and his government have pushed for new trade and tourism pacts with Beijing—China accounts for some 40% of Taiwan’s exports—Tsai aims to lessen the island’s dependence on the mainland by building global ties and championing local brands. “Taiwan needs a new model, ” she tells TIME.

現在，身為在2016年台灣總統大選中的領先者，蔡英文的願景充滿自信又堅定地強調以台灣為核心。蔡英文說她會維持兩岸的現狀──這指的是說臺北與北京彼此同意對於何者代表中國保留不同的認知（註明：這是時代雜誌記者的見解），並且把這個島嶼的命運留給未來決定。但，蔡英文想要將台灣的經濟、發展與文化置於首位。當馬英九和他的政府推動與中國的貿易及觀光協議時（中國占台灣出口的百分之四十），蔡英文希望加強與世界連結、扶植台灣品牌，以降低台灣對中國的依賴。她對時代雜誌說：「台灣需要一個新模式」。

Whether voters share her vision is a question that matters beyond Taipei. Taiwan is tiny, with a population of only 23 million, but its economy—powered by electronics, agriculture and tourism—ranks about mid-20s in the world by GDP size, with a GDP per capita about thrice that of China’s. Ceded by China’s Qing dynasty to Japan after the 1894–95 First Sino-Japanese War, colonized by Tokyo for half a century, then seized by Nationalist forces fleeing the Communists at the end of the Chinese civil war, Taiwan has long been a pawn in a regional great game. It is a linchpin for the U.S. in East Asia alongside Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, and, most important, it’s the only real democracy in the Chinese-speaking world.
“This election matters because it’s a window into democracy rooted in Chinese tradition,” says Lung Ying-tai, an author and social commentator who recently stepped down as Culture Minister. “Because of Taiwan, the world is able to envision a different China.”

台灣的選民是否同意她的願景，是一件擴及台北以外的事情。台灣的土地雖小，只有兩千三百萬的人口，但是經濟因電子業，農業以及觀光業的支，以國內生產毛額來說在世界排名第二十幾名。台灣的國內人均產值則是中國的三倍。台灣在1894-95的中日戰爭被中國清朝割讓後，被日本殖民了半個世紀；之後在中國內戰結束時逃避共產黨的國民黨勢力給佔領。長期以來台灣是區域競爭中的一個棋子。在美國的東亞布局中，台灣、日本、南韓及菲律賓同為最關鍵的環節。更重要的是，台灣是在華語世界中唯一一個真正的民主國家。甫卸任文化部長的作者與社會評論員龍應台表示：「這場選舉很重要，因為它提供了一個窗口，讓外界一探以中華文化為根基的民主……因為台灣，世界得以想像一個不一樣的中國。」

Taiwan’s politics irritate and befuddle Beijing. To the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Taiwan is the province that got away, a living, breathing, voting reminder of what could happen to China if the CCP loosens its grip on its periphery, from Tibet to Xinjiang to Hong Kong. Beijing is particularly wary of a change in government from Ma’s relatively China-friendly Kuomintang (KMT) to Tsai’s firmly China-skeptic Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). When Tsai ran for President in 2012, Beijing blasted her, without actually naming her, as a “troublemaker” and “splittist”—CCP-speak reserved for Dalai Lama–level foes. “A DPP government means uncertainty for cross-strait ties,” says Lin Gang, a Taiwan specialist at Shanghai Jiao Tong University’s School of International and Public Affairs.

台灣的政治讓北京感到惱怒又百思不解。對中國共產黨來說，台灣是一個逃走的省，也是對中國活生生的提醒──若中國鬆懈對於香港、西藏及新疆等非核心地區的掌控時，可能會發生的事。北京對於台灣的政權，由對中國相對友善的馬政府輪替到對中國保持疑慮的民進黨，抱持格外戒慎的態度。蔡英文在2012年參選總統的時候，北京雖然沒有指名道姓，卻明顯對她大肆抨擊，說她是一個「麻煩製造者」或「分裂主義者」——在共產黨的術語中，這些話專門達賴喇嘛這一層級的仇敵。任教於上海交通大學國際與公共關係學院的台灣事務專家林岡說：「民進黨政府代表的是兩岸關係的不確定性。」

To the U.S., which is bound by the Taiwan Relations Act to come to the island’ s aid if it’s attacked, Taiwan is a longtime friend and unofficial ally, though the strength of that friendship is being tested by China’s rise. Washington worries that Taiwan’s people, especially its youth, are growing warier of China, and that any conflict between the two might draw in the U.S.
“What this election has done is crystallize the changes, the shift in public opinion,” says Shelley Rigger, a Taiwan scholar at Davidson College in North Carolina and the author of Why Taiwan Matters. “I don’t think cross-strait relations are going to be easy going forward, and that’s not something U.S. policymakers want to hear.”

對美國來說，根據《台灣關係法》，在台灣受到武力攻擊的情況下，須協防台灣。台灣是美國長期友邦和非正式盟國，儘管兩國之間友誼的強度正受到中國崛起的考驗。華府擔心台灣人民，特別是年輕人，對於中國的警戒心逐漸提高，而兩者之間的衝突可能會把美國牽扯進來。著有《台灣為何重要》（Why Taiwan Matters）一書的美國北卡羅來那州戴維森大學（Davidson College）教授任雪麗（Shelley Rigger）說：「這場選舉讓所有的改變具體化，反映出民意板塊的移動……我不認為接下來的兩岸關係會更融洽，而這不是美國的政策制定者想要聽到的東西。」

The KMT has yet to formally nominate a candidate for the top job, but the favorite is Hung Hsiu-chu, the legislature’s female deputy speaker. Nicknamed ”little hot pepper” because of her diminutive stature and feisty manner, Hung, 67, would be a contrast to the more professorial Tsai should she get the KMT’s nod. “I don’t think [Tsai] is a strong opponent,” Hung tells TIME. Yet the DPP’s choice, who has already started pressing the flesh islandwide, is spirited too. “People have this vision of me as a conservative person, but I’m actually quite adventurous,” she says. And possessed of a sharp sense of humor—when I compliment her cooking, Tsai looks at me with mock exasperation: “I have a Ph.D., you know.”

國民黨雖然還未正式提名總統候選人，但目前最被看好的就是立法院副院長洪秀柱。因為身材嬌小與好戰性格而被封為「小辣椒」的洪秀柱（67歲），如果獲黨的提名，將與擁有學者形象的蔡英文，呈現顯著的對比。洪秀柱向時代記者表示：「我不認為蔡英文是一位強的對手」。然而，民進黨的候選人已經士氣高昂，在全台各地展開競選活動。蔡英文說：「有些人認為我是一個保守的人，但我其實是很愛冒險的」。她有一種犀利的幽默感──當我讚美她的廚藝時，她用搞笑的語氣假裝惱怒說：「我可是擁有博士學位的。」

Tsai grew up in a home on Taipei’s Zhongshan Road North, a street named after Taiwan’s symbolic father, Sun Yat-sen, the Chinese revolutionary who helped overthrow the Qing and co-founded the KMT. Her own father, an auto mechanic turned property developer, was of the Confucian kind: he encouraged her to study hard but also expected her, as the youngest daughter, to devote herself to his care. “I was not considered a kid that would be successful in my career,” says Tsai.

蔡英文在台北的中山北路長大，這條街是以革命推翻清朝、成立國民黨並視為國父的孫逸仙命名。她的父親是一位修車技師，後來成為土地開發商。他承襲了儒家思想，希望蔡英文要用功讀書，但也期許身為小女兒的蔡英文可以留在父親身邊照顧他。蔡英文說：「我小時候不是一個被認為未來會有成就的孩子。」

After attending university in Taiwan, she studied law at Cornell in New York because, she says, it seemed the place for a young woman who “wanted to have a revolutionary life.” From there she went to the London School of Economics, where she earned her Ph.D., also in law, in less than three years. “That pleased my father,” she says. When he called her home, she obliged, returning to Taiwan to teach and, in 1994, to enter government in a series of high- profile but mostly policy-oriented roles in the Fair Trade Commission, National Security Council and Mainland Affairs Council.

在台灣大學畢業後，她前往紐約州康乃爾大學研讀法律，因為她說，這是一個「想過革命性的生活」的年輕女子該去的地方。之後，她前往倫敦政治經濟學院攻讀法學博士，並且三年不到就獲得學位。她說：「這讓我父親很高興」。她遵從父親的意思返回台灣，先回大學教書並在1994年進入政府，出任公平交易委員會、國安會及陸委會等一系列重要的、政策導向的職位。

Even close supporters say Tsai was, and perhaps still is, an unlikely politician, especially for the DPP. Taiwan’s opposition party was forged in struggle and led by veterans of the democracy movement—a fight Tsai mostly missed. The Kaohsiung Incident in 1979—a human-rights rally that was violently broken up by security forces, galvanizing the democracy movement— took place while Tsai was overseas, cocooned in the ivory tower. If the archetypal DPP operative is a bare-knuckle street fighter, Tsai is an Olympic fencer—restrained and precise.

就連許多親近蔡英文的支持者都認為，蔡英文是一位非典型的政治人物，特別就民進黨而言。身為在野黨的民進黨，在台灣民主運動的奮鬥過程中焠煉而成，由民主運動的老兵所成立，這是一場蔡英文錯過的戰役。1979年高雄的美麗島事件，當一場人權遊行遭警政單位暴力驅散，而後來激勵了台灣的民主運動，蔡英文當時正在國外求學，受到象牙塔的庇護。若說民進黨的典型人物是赤手空拳的街頭鬥士，蔡英文則是一位奧林匹克級的劍術家：自我克制又精確到位。

She stepped into the spotlight in 2008, becoming party chair when the DPP found itself booted from office, with its chief Chen Shui-bian, the outgoing President, later convicted of corruption. While she possessed a deep knowledge of policy, Tsai did not then seem like a leader. “She used to sort of hide behind me when we went door to door,” recalls legislator Hsiao Bi-khim, a longtime colleague and friend. “People compared her to a lost bunny in the forest, with wolves surrounding, both from within the party and outside.

在2008年民進黨失去政權，而前總統陳水扁隨即遭貪汙罪起訴的時刻，蔡英文踏入了鎂光燈下，成為民進黨主席。雖然蔡英文對於政策擁有深度的瞭解，但當時她還不像一位領導人。長期以來是她同事與朋友的立法委員蕭美琴說「以前當我們挨家挨戶去拜訪時，她有點會躲在我身後」。「有些形容她為一個在森林裡迷路的兔子，被黨內與黨外的狼群包圍。」

After an unsuccessful 2010 mayoral bid, Tsai ran for, and also lost, the presidency in 2012. Jason Liu, a veteran DPP speechwriter, says now that the campaign did not “sell” Tsai well enough. The ideas were strong, but the delivery left “distance between her and the voters.” Ironically, it was not until her concession speech that Tsai seemed to connect emotionally with Taiwan’s citizens. “You may cry,” she told the tearful crowd. “But don’t lose heart.”

2010年，蔡英文參與市長選舉失利，在2012年也沒順利當選總統。民進黨資深文膽劉建忻表示，當時的競選總部對於「行銷」蔡英文這個概念，做得不夠好；雖然擁有許多好點子，但是執行上還是「讓選民感到有所距離」。諷刺地，一直到敗選感言，蔡英文才似乎與台灣人民產生情感上的連結。她對含著淚水的群眾表示：「你可以哭泣，但不能洩氣。」

A lot has changed since 2012. Eleven hours after making eggs, with a policy meeting, a cross-country train ride and a harbor tour behind her, Tsai is addressing a couple hundred students at a university in the southern city of Kaohsiung, a DPP stronghold. She’s in lecture mode, at ease, talking about her party’s economic plans: stronger regional links and a focus on innovation to support small businesses. “How many of you went to Taipei for the Sunflower protests?” she asks in Mandarin. At least a third raise their hands.

2012年之後的台灣，歷經了許多改變。蔡英文煎蛋後的11個小時後，歷經了一場政策會議、搭乘高鐵從北一路向南、緊接著進行高雄碼頭導覽。她抵達南台灣民進黨的重鎮高雄，向數百位大學生發表演說。她以一派輕鬆的授課模式，闡述著民進黨的經濟計畫：加強區域間的連結，並聚焦於支持創新的小型經濟。她用中文詢問在場學生「你們之中有多少人去台北參加過太陽花學運？」現場至少有三分之一的學生舉起了手。

Taiwan’s students were once seen as apathetic. But during spring last year, Taipei was swept up by thousands-strong demonstrations over a services pact with China. Student and civic groups worried that the deal could hurt Taiwan’s economy and leave it vulnerable to pressure from Beijing. They felt it was pushed through without adequate public scrutiny. The Sunflower Movement, as it came to be called after a florist donated bundles of the blooms, grew into a grassroots revolt, culminating in the March 18 storming of the legislature.

台灣的學生過去一度被視為相當冷漠。但是在去年的春天，台北市被數以千計的抗議者淹沒，反對與中國簽訂的服務貿易協議。學生與公民團體擔憂這個協議會傷害台灣經濟，讓台灣的經濟受制於中國壓力而變得脆弱。他們也認為，服貿協議的推動並沒有經過適當的公民審議。太陽花運動是民間累積的抗爭與不滿，在3月18日這天一舉衝進立法院，運動的稱號是由於抗爭期間一位花販捐贈了大量太陽花而因此命名。

The movement was grounded in questions of social justice. Since coming to power in 2008, Ma has argued that cross-strait commerce is the key to the island’s fortunes, signing 21 trade deals. Yet young people in particular wonder if the deals benefit only Big Business on both sides of the strait. They say rapprochement with Beijing has left them none the richer, and agonize over the high cost of housing, flat wages and the possibility of local jobs going to China. A sign during a protest outside the Presidential Palace on March 30 last year captured the mood: “We don’t have another Taiwan to sell.”

這個運動的主要訴求就是社會正義。自從國民黨2008年執政以來，簽訂了21個兩岸貿易協定，馬英九主張兩岸的商業往來是台灣最關鍵的財富來源。但是年輕人質疑這項論述，他們認為這些貿易協議只有兩岸的大財團獲利。他們說北京的和解政策並沒有讓年輕人變得富有，反而讓他們受困於高房價、停滯的薪資、以及在地工作機會可能流失到中國的可能性。在去年3月30日於總統府外的抗議中，有個標語最能捕捉整體的社會氛圍：「台灣只有一個，賣了就沒了！」

The emphasis on quality of life, and not just macro-indicators, is good news for Tsai. Her vision for a more economically independent Taiwan did not sway the electorate in 2012 but may now have stronger appeal. The KMT, bruised by the Sunflower protests and then battered by fed-up voters in midterm polls last fall, is trying to remake itself as a more populist party. Timothy Yang, a former Foreign Minister who is now vice president of the National Policy Foundation, the KMT’s think tank, says the party stands by its cross-strait record. But even Yang, a KMT stalwart, is keen to address the issue of equity:
“The benefits of this interaction with mainland China should be shared with the general public.”

台灣社會對於生活品質的重視，而非僅僅強調宏觀經濟指標，對蔡英文來說是件好事。她希望打造一個經濟上更加獨立的台灣，雖然這個理念在2012年並沒有說動選民，但，現在可能更有吸引力。國民黨在太陽花運動中受到重創，在去年秋天的期中選舉中又再度被選民以選票教訓。現在，國民黨試圖把自己再造成一個民粹的政黨。目前擔任國民黨智庫『國家政策基金會』副董事長的前外交部長楊進添先生受訪時說道，「國民黨堅持其兩岸的立場」。但即便像楊進添這樣堅定的國民黨員，也熱衷於解決公平的議題。他說：「兩岸互動的利益，應該要與全民共享！」

Tsai should easily carry traditional DPP support: much of the south, the youth vote, and those who identify as Taiwanese and who are not a part of the elite that came from China after the CCP victory in 1949. The DPP’s missing link is Big Business, which supports the KMT and closer ties with the mainland, where many Taiwan companies are invested. Tsai recognizes that this is a constituency she needs to woo but doesn’t seem clear as to how, beyond saying, “Our challenge is to produce something that is sensible to both sides without being considered as a traitor to the friends we used to be with when we were an opposition party.”

蔡英文要得到傳統民進黨的支持並不難，例如南部選民、年輕選票、還有那些認同自己是台灣人，而不是1949年中國共產黨勝利後來自中國的精英份子。然而，民進黨缺乏與大企業的連結，因為台灣企業大量投資大陸，而其中這些大財團多半支持國民黨，以及與大陸建立更緊密的關係。蔡英文也理解到這是她必須要去吸引的一群選民，但是對於如何進行並沒有太清楚的圖像。她說：「我們的挑戰是要去創造雙方都認為合理的立場，又不能被我們在野時的朋友認為是叛徒。」

That will be hard. The KMT has long argued that it, not the DPP, is best qualified to run the economy, which, corruption apart, did not do well under Chen. Tsai’s supporters concede that many citizens feel the same way—that the DPP can be an effective opposition but not administration. “The KMT has always portrayed itself as more suited to guide the economy,” says J. Michael Cole, a Taipei-based senior fellow with the University of Nottingham’s China Policy Institute and a senior officer at Tsai’s Thinking Taiwan Foundation. “There’s this stubborn perception that a DPP government would be bad for business.”

這是困難的挑戰。國民黨長期主張自己比民進黨更擅長治理經濟，尤其陳水扁執政時期除了貪污，經濟表現並不好。蔡英文的支持者也同意，確實有些民眾認為民進黨可是一個稱職的反對黨，但不是執政黨。諾丁漢大學中國政策研究中心資深研究員暨小英基金會資深主管寇謐將（J. Michael Cole）說：「國民黨把自己描繪是一個更適合主導經濟的政黨。另外也有一種僵化的刻版印象，認為民進黨執政對企業不利。」

It’s a narrative that the CCP backs and may well float as the campaign progresses, either directly, in China’s state-controlled press, or indirectly, through, for instance, its connections in Taiwan’s business community. “Beijing is going to want to make a point through all sorts of channels, including Big Business, that cross-strait relations will not be as smooth if you vote a government into power that has not accepted the foundation that has underpinned developments of the last eight years,” says Alan Romberg, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center, a Washington, D.C., think tank.

這種論調受到中國共產黨的支持，並且今隨著選戰的進展不斷被拋出。共產黨可能直接地利用中國控制的媒體影響選舉，或是間接地透過中國與台灣商業界的連結。美國華府智庫史汀森研究中心（Stimson Center）資深學者容安瀾（Alan Romberg）說：「北京將會透過大企業等各種管道來闡述其立場，表明要是台灣人民讓一個不接受過去八年兩岸發展基
礎的政府執政，兩岸關係的發展將不會如現在一樣平順。」

Beijing has never been receptive to a DPP government, but it is particularly negative now. Since coming to power in 2012, China’s leader Xi Jinping has proved himself to be more assertive and nationalistic than most expected, a man not eager to compromise. Last September he told a delegation from the island that China and Taiwan might be one day be reunited under Hong Kong’s “one country, two systems” formula, which is rejected by both the KMT and DPP and, surveys consistently show, the vast majority of Taiwan’s people. This May, Xi warned again about the danger of “separatist forces”—a comment widely interpreted as a swipe at the DPP.

北京對於民進黨政權的接受度向來不高，但現在尤其抱持負面的態度。中國領導人習近平在2012年掌權後，證明自己比外界想像的還更加武斷，帶有更強烈的民族主義色彩，是一個不輕易妥協的人。去年九月，他對一個來自台灣的代表團說，中國和台灣可望採用香港「一國兩制」的模式統一，然而這卻是一個國民黨和民進黨都反對的方案，而且民調也一再顯示，絕大多數的台灣人民無法接受。今年五月，習近平再度警告「分裂主義勢力」會帶來的危險──這段說詞普遍被外界詮釋為對民進黨的抨擊。

Cross-strait relations are managed according to the so-called 1992 Consensus reached by Beijing and Taipei (then also governed by the KMT), a formula the KMT’s Yang calls “a masterpiece of ambiguity.” Under the 1992 Consensus, both sides acknowledge that there is only one China, but without specifying what exactly that means. This, Yang says, has allowed the KMT to move forward on bilateral trade, transport and tourism without being forced to address whether “one China” is the China imagined by Beijing or by Taipei.

兩岸關係是治理目前根據北京和台北（當時為國民黨執政）之間所謂的九二共識，這是一個被國民黨的楊進添形容為「模糊性的一大鉅作」的政策。根據九二共識，雙方承認只有一個中國，但不表明一個中國的確切意含。楊進添說，這讓國民黨在推展雙邊貿易、交通和觀光方面得以取得進展，而不需被迫去回答「一個中國」究竟是北京或是台北心目中的中國。

The DPP has long promoted de jure independence. The first clause in its charter calls for “the establishment of an independent sovereignty known as the Republic of Taiwan,” not the Republic of China, Taiwan’s official name. This platform resonates with the DPP base but is increasingly untenable given China’s economic clout and growing power on the world stage. While the first DPP presidency under Chen was hardly a break from the past, it did see a cooling with Beijing. Things warmed again under Ma. Lin, the Taiwan expert at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, says Tsai is somewhere between Chen and Ma: “If she wins the election, she will not pursue Taiwan in dependence. But she will not promote the development of the cross-strait relationship as Ma Ying-jeou did.”

民進黨過去長期以來推動台灣的法理獨立。民進黨黨綱第一條闡明「建立主權獨立自主的台灣共和國」，而非台灣的正式國號中華民國。這個立場獲得民進黨基本盤的認同，卻在中國的經濟實力成長與中國在世界舞台上崛起之下，越來越無法實現。儘管陳水扁主政時期的民進黨政府跟過去的政策並無太大差別，但跟北京的關係確實趨向冷淡。馬英九主政時期兩岸關係再度暖化。上海交通大學的台灣專家林岡說，蔡英文的立場介於馬英九和陳水扁之間。他說：「如果她勝選，她不會追求台灣獨立。但她也不會像馬英九一樣推動兩岸關係的發展。」

Tsai stresses that she will not alter the politics between Taiwan and China, but she is vague about whether she will repeal the DPP’s independence clause. And unification? That, she says, “is something you have to resolve democratically—it is a decision to be made by the people here.”

蔡英文強調她不會改變台灣和中國之間的政治關係，但對於是否撤回台獨條文卻是依然維持模糊。至於統一呢？她說：「那是必須經由民主程序解決的事情——這是一個必須經由此地的人民來做的決定。」

Hung, Tsai’s potential KMT opponent, says the DPP flag bearer needs to clarify her stance on cross-strait relations. “People ask her, ‘What is the status quo?’ and she can’t say anything specific,” says Hung. The KMT’s Yang offers a metaphor: “Before you harvest, you have to plow the land, transplant the seedlings, fertilize; all the work … has been done by the KMT, and yet they are going to harvest the crop?”

蔡英文的在對手洪秀柱說，民進黨的掌舵手需要清楚地闡明她對兩岸關係的立場。洪秀柱說：「大家問她『維持現狀是什麼意思？』，她卻沒有給具體的回應。」國民黨的楊進添用一個比喻：「在收割之前，要先耕地、播種、施肥；所有的工作……都已經被國民黨完成了，然而他們現在卻想要收割？」

Tsai believes she will win that right. Several days before I return to my Beijing base, over Taiwan-Japanese fusion in Kaohsiung, Tsai is quietly confident that she will gain the trust of Taiwan’s voters and secure victory, whatever Beijing might think. She puts a final piece of tuna on my plate. It’ s from Pingtung County in the south, where she was born. “Go back to Beijing,” says Tsai, “and tell them you were served by the next President of Taiwan.”

蔡英文相信她會贏得這項權利。在我返回北京駐點的前幾天，我們在一家位於高雄的台式日本料理小店用餐，蔡英文對於取得台灣選民的信任並贏得選戰，展現出低調的自信。當時，她把最後一片鮪魚夾到我的盤子上。那塊鮪魚來自南方的屏東，她的出生地。「妳回北京以後，告訴他們，」蔡英文說：「台灣的下一任總統曾經為妳服務過。」

—With reporting by Zoher Abdoolcarim, Gladys Tsai and Natalie Tso/Taipei

─────────────────────
圖片：猜猜看，認出畫風了嗎？^^

（歡迎任何形式分享，一律免問）

88BARS BABY TAKE THEM WAY BACK TO THE BASICS

📢 數位收聽 : https://kumachan.lnk.to/88BARS
🔔 訂閱頻道 : https://sonymusic.pse.is/KumaChan


///Song Lyrics
I’m never the same
還是一直變
yeah I changed the game 華語嘻哈圈 Ever since 無限
小雨來的不是時候 還是多愁善感 bout下雨天
但我爺爺小時候就教我 大頭大頭下雨不愁 now I just make it rain
Flowing like 安卓三千 來自下個千禧年
ATLien 先馳得點的先知
I see the future like Mary with my 千里眼
天之驕子的天資
再加上堅持到底的偏執
外加上顏值 到底老天是否太明顯的偏心
one in a billion

maybe沒有話語霸權
林北有BAR的霸權
意思是either u love me or hate me when I drop them BARS
你逼不得已 gotta listen （facts！）
what's poppin I’m hopping on pop charts
把餅畫大 圈粉帶回嘻哈圈
剛唱完小巨蛋同一晚find me at 公館水管音樂moshing
Bitch why u sobbing
在那邊抱怨 說我太主流了 好了啦
我隨便一個主流跨刀 都能讓你主打歌命喪我刀下
說我太商業 不夠underground
cus I’m on top man
堅持不降價錢
天天過年 每場當做在唱跨年 （早跟你說過了！）

火大了 sending shots like 喝乾啦
Flow hotter than哪吒的
Got a whole lotta gold locked up in my vault
gotta go harder than my role model 羅大佑
Roll another 大的 yo
嗨大了
我普攻
你就以為開大了
絕世武功
該害怕了
像有開掛的
Jedi Knight Sky walker
My god
叫我嗆金曲評審 太瞎了
您別挨罵了
Why bother
U already know know I’m higher brother
My 思維 is out of control
Out of this world さようなら
This that 奧林匹亞等級高速運作
奧林匹克等級高級動作

花式比劃 honey 哩跨隆沒
大師級畫作 灑脫潑墨
傻了你懷疑我拍子跑拍
像跟莎士比亞說你文法用錯

你分不清我的真假動作
就像我分不清我的真假朋友
被我當眾戳破他說「真假？」
bro你反應真假 你所謂的真 假得真假

不經一事 不長一智
但不好意思 我還是不可一世
不合時宜 什麼意思
這首沒有跟你要有副歌的意思
不讓你附和的意思
整個超過你能夠負荷的意思
i’m too good的意思
KTV只能開原唱 看我獨秀的意思

我一枝獨秀 又一直突破
一絲不苟 flow 一滴不漏
氣勢如虹 got them bitches all shook
No hook shit got them bitches all hooked

No new friends me & rgry
沆瀣一氣
Going stupid aw silly me
Flow too sick 絡繹不絕 需要隔離衣
lil loser on that PTT talking bullshit 我芙蓉出水
當眾處決 遇到true MC 嚇到補血 需要康乃馨
na mean
叫我
Bully的bully我 不理解為何有這麼多的
pussy網路裡面 自以為自己有多了不起
Usually注意力不值得處理你但我有天
看著那些初級班的 菜雞在那互啄
看了一個下午feelin like a 公園裡的阿伯
Kind of funny how u 為了你的五斗米能
匯到你的戶頭裡能跪的像個扶不起的阿斗
太多饒舌歌手 連八個八都落的七零八落
killem all
扳機一口 殺了八十八個BAR u can call this殺雞儆猴
（88BARS baby take them way back to the basics
I’m back from my hiatus)


///Song Credit
演唱人：熊仔
詞：熊信寬
曲：熊信寬／rgry
製作人：rgry
編曲：rgry
錄音工程師：熊信寬
混音工程師／母帶後期處理：rgry
OP：Sony Music Publishing (Pte) Ltd. Taiwan Branch


///MV Staff
Creative Direction：NXWV
Fliming：GJ94

Executive Producer : Jizo, Howl
Director: Ai Chen
Line Producer : Cindy H
D.O.P : BORU
First Assistant Camera : Yi Chun Lin
Second Assistant Camera : Jyun Yu Dai

Gaffer Leo Chen
Electrician Xin Yuan Huang / Joa Ming Jo
Editor: Ai Chen
Colorist / VFX : BORU
VFX Supervisor : Well Liu
Digital Compostion : Chen Chiung Yu

Stylist : Howl
Hair Stylist : Jun
Special Thanks : Xiu Wei Lin
Make Up Artist : Fi Lin




///Follow 熊仔
熊仔 Instagram : https://www.instagram.com/poeteknology/
熊仔 Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/poeproduction/
熊仔 Weibo : https://www.weibo.com/u/3919089509

Sony Music Taiwan CPOP - 華語粉絲團
https://www.facebook.com/SonymusicTaiwanCPOP/
Sony Music Taiwan CPOP - Instagram
https://www.instagram.com/sonymusic_taiwan/

#熊仔 #88BARS #大嘻哈時代

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肥丁第二本料理書
《100%幸福無添加！肥丁手作點心：9大基本點心×63種網友最想學的獨家配方 超人氣零食輕鬆在家做》 (繁體)
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