這位楊某人還真敢講:「鴻海雖然曾經擁有超過1百萬員工,也是全世界最大的勞工密及代工廠。但在勞工管理方面,卻一無可取,毫無學習效法之處。」
此人就是典型的站著說話不腰疼,「沒啥現場管理經驗,所以不知道百萬人規模管理的困難度」。我甚至懷疑此人連30人小公司大概都管不好。
1. 南非等許多民主國家發展到後來是國民財富縮水、犯罪率暴增。
美國真是自由國度?身為美國法律碩士的我,看到的反而是美國充滿各種市場與非市場管制,你在美國上藥房不但連顆消炎藥都買不到(因為受處方簽管制),連自家草坪修剪樣貌、頻率都受到社區管委會干涉。甚至某些地區你能否購買房地產並遷入居住,也要鄰居同意!
2. 當然更甭提此人經濟學基礎不扎實,除了數學公式亂丟之外,經濟內涵是一知半解,多次被我糾正其錯誤。
無論是中美貿易戰此人錯估情勢,多次聲稱美國可輕而易舉打敗中國(是啊,都打到利率倒掛);又或者宣稱「Bloomberg報導的米粒晶片監聽事件」為真;又或者聲稱「中國操控匯率為真」...等等可笑論點。在在證明此人根本不懂價格理論,甚至連真實世界觀察都有問題。
請參見:
「匯率操控論的愚蠢與荒謬」
https://tinyurl.com/ybxjg3fr
「貿易戰檢驗-g20中美大和解?」
https://tinyurl.com/yy3e3w48
「貿易戰再檢驗-台灣12月外銷訂單衰退10%」
https://tinyurl.com/ybc8q2nf
「從中國工人生產力不如美國談起」
https://tinyurl.com/y5ekxb6p
「總體經濟學可笑又一例」
https://tinyurl.com/yxsclo4o
「關於usmca」
https://tinyurl.com/y4o28acl
民主能當飯吃嗎?
郭台銘這一句話傳遍世界。我碰過即使不懂中文的分析師,也聽過台灣的Terry Gou,不認同民主制度這件事。民主是否幫助經濟成長,是一個被討論了幾世紀的古典議題。隨著二戰後量化經濟學的發展。對於民主與經濟議題,逐漸由近代較為精準的數據,以及統計等數學模式,取代了解過去的辯論,做出較有信任度的結論。1997年,著名的經濟學者Rodriguez 一篇論文,用了90+國家的資料,做出了分析。某些專制國家,確實也出現高度經濟成長。但民主國家,依據Rodrik分析,有著以下幾個優勢:
Rodrik, "Democracy and Economic Performance", 1997, Harvard University
1. 民主國家長期的經濟增長,更具可預測性。
2.民主國家之經濟穩定性較高: 從實際GDP、實際消費、以及實際投資等三方面而言,民主國家長期性的震動,都比專制國家低的許多。
3. 民主國家對經濟衝擊,應對能力較高: 許多觀點認為,在大環境巨變,經濟受到不尋常壓力之處境下,政府權利較高的國家, 比較可能積極對應衝擊。然而事實與此假設完全相反。根據1970年代,油價攀升、地緣政治動盪之國際情勢下,經濟衝擊最小的,乃是政府權力最低,而人民政治參與率最高的國家。相對於極權政府的一意孤行,高度民主化的國家,較容易吸收民間的各項改革和對應方針。
4. 民主國家勞工薪水比較高: 過去資料顯示,越是民主國家,其勞工薪資越高 (這個結論已經排除了,各國經濟附加價值之不同,購買力不同,以及人均GDP等因素)。
2002年左右,哥倫比亞大學的另一篇論文,更進一步談到,民主制度國家,其全因素生產力(total factor productivity)有比較高的成長。
Rivera-Batiz, "Democracy, Governance and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence", 2002, Columbia University
Rivera-Batiz理論的一個重點在於,民主體制內部的制衡效應,將腐敗政府官員和機制,逐漸排除,提高治理質量。民主制度大體上有增加"政府質量"(quality of governance)之效應,但中南美洲以及非洲的幾個例子,將整體民主對經濟的效應拉下。但這並不是常態。Piero Gleijeses說了以下這句話,描述拉丁美洲的所謂民主: “The box on the outside is labeled a democracy, but inside you have an authoritarian system.”。
附圖表顯示該論文的主要結論之一。民主政治,是解釋經濟成長的一個重要元素。加入了"政府質量"之後,該元素變成超越民主因素的主要因素。解釋了民主體系內所推動的高治理品質,乃是促進經濟成長的根本原因之一。
民主制度,不見得增加某些人之個人財富,也不保證降低代工產業成本。但卻對你我的經濟利益,以及後代子孫的經濟利益,有著正面的關係。郭台銘在會議上怒叱立法委員蕭美琴,更可見他不尊重民主體系。民主制度之民選立法人員,與企業首腦討論或執問是常態。美國各大企業CEO,常常被傳到國會,為參眾議員詢問,一次幾個小時,被問的問題尖銳且直接。"沒有正眼相看",是個小插曲。重點是郭台銘為什麼沒有就事論事,回應蕭委員。
78585 - 請幫我幫我
這是鴻海在前幾年,員工屢次發生跳樓自殺案件後,所提供給基層員工的一個熱線電話。隨著鴻海員工自殺事件,康乃爾大學的學者Selden,與香港理工學院合作,對鴻海的勞工制度,做了一些調查:
Selden, "Chinese labor protest and trade unions", 2016, Cornell University
Selden, "Apple, Foxconn and China's New Working Class: Political Economy of global production", 2013, Cornell University
自殺事件後,鴻海所成立的「工會」,並不是民主體制下的工會。鴻海「工會」之經理人,完全由總公司指派。員工並沒有透過工會,而獲得爭取任何權利的管道。員工將此類的新"福利",稱之為"監督中心"。將並自殺防止熱線,稱之為"監管熱線"。富士康的工會此其實是一個政治裝飾品,其用意在於,紓解西方企業客戶,對於鴻海勞工管理的顧慮。被接受訪問的員工,基本上一致表示了工作環境惡劣,工作時數的不合理,以及欠缺加班制度。「血汗工場」不是形容詞,而是個事實。
郭台銘政見之一:替台灣年輕人的工作和出路著想。但除了實現血汗工廠模式之外,還有什麼具體的政策。鴻海雖然曾經擁有超過1百萬員工,也是全世界最大的勞工密及代工廠。但在勞工管理方面,卻一無可取,似乎無學習效法之處。
https://www.facebook.com/albert.yang.3990/posts/10214670786266222
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total factor productivity 在 元毓 Facebook 的最佳貼文
【再談美國經濟現況】
Charles W Eliot這位哈佛教授,美國前財政部長在英國金融時報的文章 (https://goo.gl/ehtasT),其對美國經濟的看法有一點與我8月時寫的⟪榮景或低成長的十字路口 (We are at the crossroads of prosperity or low progress)⟫ (https://wp.me/p9ffS3-qB)相同:美國新任總統上台後的慶祝行情必須有實質經濟成長來支撐,但與我不同的是這位財政部長顯然是凱恩斯經濟學信徒,錯誤地認為公共支出擴大對經濟有幫助(凱恩斯經濟學派的錯誤過去我討論過,請自行爬文)。
而我依然認為較為全面的看法應該是我在⟪榮景⟫一文中所強調的:
"The raising of personal debts and reduction of savings means American are more eager to spend, which implies three possibilities:
A. the anticipated inflation rate increases, or;
B. the anticipated income grows, or;
C. the information cost of the future progress decreases.
The problem here is which factor weighs more over the others? If the factor A stands out, then, according to I. Fisher's theory of the interest, the total wealth of the American will decrease. In a lucky situation, the Fed may sense it about six months later and stop raising the Fed Fund Rate to save the economy as it had done before. In a bad situation as the Fed blindly continuing raising the interest rate, we can predict a bear market coming for a while until the Fed realize the real situation. No matter which one happened, the recent economic expansion would not last for long.
If the factor B or C weighs more than the factor A, the total wealth will increase and the prosperity could be foreseen. There are two major causes to make it happen: one is the growth of productivity and the other is the decrease of transaction costs, including but not limited to the more friendly laws to businesses, over-haul lower tax burdens, and lower immigrant limits (including illegal Mexican immigrants)."
目前我們還沒看到明顯的美國國內通膨現象,而上市企業獲利確有增加,我在8月的點出的兩條路,似乎美國正在正向循環的這條道上走。
Trump總統努力中的減稅方案被主流媒體錯誤地解讀為只對富人有利。事實上本次減稅方案同時也激發兩黨檢討起美國諸多不恰當的補助政策,這點是好事。
再補充諾貝爾經濟學獎得主Milton Friedman曾言:
「"I am in favor of cutting taxes under any circumstances and for any excuse, for any reason, whenever it's possible.
The reason I am is because I believe the big problem is not taxes, the big problem is spending.
The question is, "How do you hold down government spending?" Government spending now amounts to close to 40% of national income not counting indirect spending through regulation and the like.
If you include that, you get up to roughly half. The real danger we face is that number will creep up and up and up.
The only effective way I think to hold it down, is to hold down the amount of income the government has. The way to do that is to cut taxes." --Milton Friedman」
政府的胡亂開支才是一切問題根源(包含本blog長期批判的政客尋租貪汙現象)。唯有透過大規模減稅,減少政府收入,才能讓這個敗家子可造成損害受到限制!
回頭看看台灣蔡英文政府,嘴巴嚷著政府沒錢所以拿公務員退休金開刀,但另一手卻是軌道建設4千億、鼓勵高中生提早進入職場的72億元「青年就業儲蓄方案」、學者政客分贓的「八五○億高教深耕計畫」...
台灣沒有主張小政府的右派政黨,嗚呼!
文章連結:
https://wp.me/p9ffS3-vc
total factor productivity 在 元毓 Facebook 的最佳貼文
榮景或低成長的十字路口 (We are at the crossroads of prosperity or low progress)
In this article, I am trying to demonstrate how to use only the price theory, but not the traditional macro-economics, to forecast the future economy progress of the United States.
Here are three interesting numbers we should pay attention to:
1. The total credit-card balances grow $20B in the second quarter to $784B, highest record since the late 2009.
2. Overall debts -- including mortgages, auto loans, and students loans-- hit a record $12.8T.
3. Personal saving rate fell to 3.8% in Junes, down from a recent peak of 6.3% in Oct. 2015.
The raising of personal debts and reduction of savings means American are more eager to spend, which implies three possibilities:
A. the anticipated inflation rate increases, or;
B. the anticipated income grows, or;
C. the information cost of the future progress decreases.
The problem here is which factor weighs more over the others? If the factor A stands out, then, according to I. Fisher's theory of the interest, the total wealth of the American will decrease. In a lucky situation, the Fed may sense it about six months later and stop raising the Fed Fund Rate to save the economy as it had done before. In a bad situation as the Fed blindly continuing raising the interest rate, we can predict a bear market coming for a while until the Fed realize the real situation. No matter which one happened, the recent economic expansion would not last for long.
If the factor B or C weighs more than the factor A, the total wealth will increase and the prosperity could be foreseen. There are two major causes to make it happen: one is the growth of productivity and the other is the decrease of transaction costs, including but not limited to the more friendly laws to businesses, over-haul lower tax burdens, and lower immigrant limits (including illegal Mexican immigrants).
Right now, I am confident in that the later two factors playing more important roles in the formation of the massively optimistic anticipation. But as long as the real improvement does not catch it up in time, the positive mood could dissipate quickly. It could cost a lot of energy and time to recall it back again. What a shame, president Trump!
Therefore, I believe that we are at the crossroads of the U.S. economy progress. In only couple months, we will figure out which path do we take.
文章連結:
http://www.yuanyu.idv.tw/?p=1956
total factor productivity 在 How total factor productivity explains how nations become ... 的推薦與評價
Total factor productivity is the portion of goods and services produced that is not explained by the capital and labor used in production. ... <看更多>
total factor productivity 在 Ingredients for Total Factor Productivity - YouTube 的推薦與評價
Learn how we measure total factor productivity, which compares changes in output over time to changes in a combination of inputs, ... ... <看更多>