大盤落底了沒? 何時可以試著買進?
✍️美國投資報Investor's Business Daily(IBD)有教一個方法, 大家可以參考.
1. 去觀察大盤股價在均線附近的反應(50 sma, 200 sma是比較常用的兩個)
2. 第一天的大漲還不安全. 要看接下來大盤(道瓊, 或是Nasdaq)有沒有另一天又是帶量又上漲. 這樣才能確定新的漲勢(confirmed uptrend)開始了.
🛑不過, IBD有提到: 即使這樣, 新的漲勢還是有可能逆轉, 但是新的漲勢一定要經過至少兩天的確認.
(貓的建議是: 再看看最近有沒有甚麼經濟數字會公布, 這樣搭配起來應該是會更妥當)
"In Tuesday's stock market trading, the Dow Jones vaulted 2.2%, the S&P 500 2.15% and the Nasdaq composite 2.9%, with many top stocks reclaiming key support levels. The still-new stock market correction isn't over, but the nascent rally is promising. Another strong gain in higher volume on one more of the major market averages would signal a follow-through day to confirm a new market uptrend. That could happen as soon as Wednesday.
Keep in mind that confirmed rallies don't always work, but uptrends without confirmation almost never do."
✍️而美國財經節目主持人Jim Cramer的方法, 是去看S&P的技術指標Oscillator. 如果看不懂Oscillator, 那就去看每天的買賣量(不過有句我看不懂.....還請看得懂的讀者幫忙解釋一下🙏: When the down volume outpaces the up volume by 10 to one, you know the selloff is likely reaching its end.)
"Cramer said there are several indicators he uses to determine when a selloff is reaching its last legs. The S&P Oscillator is one of those indicators, as it measures overbought and oversold conditions. But for those not willing or able to pay for this proprietary metric, you can simply look at the buying and selling volumes on any given day. When the down volume outpaces the up volume by 10 to one, you know the selloff is likely reaching its end."
連結在此:
https://www.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/the-rally-we-have-been-waiting-for-cramers-mad-money-recap-oct-16-14747065
您是如何去觀察大盤落底了沒呢? 歡迎分享.
(Cat's Financial Accounting Challenge. Ch. 2 done)
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