關於 market net flow ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.

這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html

(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).

關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.

分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".

分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.

🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.

Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.

產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.

Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."

🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"

"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。

但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"

"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。

投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"

https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC

🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.

The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.

https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972

Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers

🌻美國生活
打了疫苗後, 在上週進城了一趟.
許久未出門的感覺很奇妙. 進了城, 也感到大家的生活還是如往常一般, 只是餐廳沒甚麼人(都用電話下單, 或是當場點了東西後就走), 許多人(並不是全部)的臉上也多了個口罩. 旅館的人倒是不多. 但商家停車場的車子應該如往常一樣, 沒有減少.

每次進城, 也一定會到Chipotle打牙祭. 這次試了他們新的飯(參雜了cauliflower花椰菜), 酸酸滋味, 配上原來burrito裡面就有的料, 真的是開胃又好吃, 一口接一口.

最近吃了三家不同的burrito, 還是覺得Chipotle的最好吃. 我想原因之一(不知道我的觀察有沒有誤), 可能是他們把不同口感的配料加在一起時, 有多家一道手續, 讓新鮮脆口的生菜, 烤熟的肉類, sour cream與其他配料均勻地被融合起來, 也讓滋味豐富了起來. 不像其他家的burrito, 一口咬下去, 就是飯, 或是豆類, 分得很清楚, 而沒有不同食材所帶來的多層次的口感.

Anyway. 附上這次進城照的幾張照片在下方.

🌻My happiness project: 年報財報導讀

股市對我來說像戰場; 年報財報就像是兵書. 而一家家公司的年報財報, 對我來說, 就像是故事書一樣, 述說著公司的成長營運軌跡. 做了這些功課後, 持股也會有信心. "Buy and do homework," 是我認為投資該有的態度.

下半年時間比較多, 所以想抽一點時間出來, 跟對看年報財報有興趣的投資人一起來讀資料, 順便藉此分享我是如何抓重點&透過年報財報來做思考的. 也想要藉此來宣揚看年報財報的好處&消除投資人對英文年報財報可能會有的恐懼感. Anyway. 這只是初步的想法. 若要實行也會是九月的事情了.

不過先錄了一段影片, 解釋我是怎麼做財報內容&電話會議內容整理的: https://youtu.be/vvkrs6CiWdw

🌻本周做的功課與閱讀
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/05/blog-post_19.html

這次的閱讀中, 跟成長股比較有關的是這段. 目前成長股也被重新定價中, 所以建議成長股投資人在挑股的時候, 盡量找有現金流, 還有獲利的公司.

"That’s true even for the highflying growth stocks that have been getting hit so hard recently—as long as they have earnings. Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research, notes that following large growth selloffs, S&P 500 growth stocks with both free cash flow and expanding margins tend to outperform in the months ahead. That means favoring stocks like ServiceNow (ticker: NOW) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) over shares of Chegg (CHGG) and Twitter (TWTR). “Buy some growth stocks on the selloff, but they have to have positive free cash flow and margin expansion,” Parker says."

🌻投資金句
"I learned that you may be right, but if enough people believe you're wrong the markets can really hurt you." --BlackRock bond chief Rick Rieder

🌻The Future of Work
看到BofA寫的這一段, 覺得挺感動的. 這也是投資的目的之一, 能夠藉著這個方式, 來接觸到世界的脈動.

The Future of Work
Thematic Research
BofA Global Research
bofa.com

May 12: The future of work is not zero-sum between humanity and technology. We believe humans can collaborate with and work alongside robots, rather than be displaced by them, and that technology can create more jobs than it destroys. By 2025 alone, the WEF [World Economic Forum] thinks automation will add 12 million net new jobs, with robots eliminating 85 million jobs but creating 97 million new ones. Other grounds for optimism include: (1) 65% of children starting school today will work in jobs that have not been invented yet; (2) “new” collar jobs will be generated from well-placed thematic sectors like healthcare, renewables, new mobility, or even moonshot technologies; and (3) we might actually be more productive and have more leisure time if robots can relieve us of more mundane, repetitive everyday tasks. We have identified $14 trillion in market cap of enablers for the future of work. Technology, industrials, and medtech are some key beneficiaries. We also see opportunities in education and the upskilling/retraining of workers by corporates. Conversely, commercial real estate/offices and legacy transport are some of the sectors facing headwinds...

So, what are the truly futuristic jobs that could be invented? Data-privacy managers, nanomedicine surgeons, lab-meat scientists, blockchain strategists, space-tourist guides, freelance biohackers, AI avatar designers, 3D food-printer chefs, leisure-time planners, ethical algorithm programmers, and brain simulation specialists, to name but a few.

🌻Dividend Growers’ Allure
這段從股息的角度, 來講解傳統價值股跟成長股的不同處.

Dividend Growers’ Allure
Insights & Commentaries
Washington Crossing Advisors
washingtoncrossingadvisors.com

May 10: Buy quality stocks that increase dividends regularly. This simple strategy takes a long-term view of investing and focuses on the dividend, not the stock price. Passive income generated from dividend growth has two main benefits. First, it focuses your investment strategy on cash-generating, growing companies. Second, it tends to lead to quality businesses that are neither too young nor too old.

Why is this so? Almost by definition, a dividend-growing company tends to cover expenses with rising cash flow. And which companies do these tend to be? They tend to be profitable, established companies in the middle of their corporate life cycle. By contrast, young companies tend to be burning cash, constantly in need of capital, and face a higher risk of failure. Such young firms tend to not pay dividends at all as they are consumed with growth. On the other hand, older companies often funnel most or all cash to investors as dividends because viable investments can no longer be found. These firms are often in decline and offer little growth, often reflected in a high current yield.

Picture:
1. Chipotle內部. 可以看到有個取餐的架子. 餐廳人員也不時在電腦螢幕前, 看進來的訂單, 備菜.
2. 旅館外一區. 面向密西根湖.
3. CSX, Union Pacific的火車廂(這兩家都有上市)

Apple 2021 Q2 電話法說會摘要

照慣例電話會議一上來就是Apple CEO Tim Cook與CFO Luca Maestri 把主要財務數字炫耀一番，畢竟Q2營收的年成長率54%，太亮眼了。以Apple這種體量的公司，如果將其當作一個國家，營收對比GDP，如此一家私人公司足以排進世界前15國。

對我們股東來說一個CFO揭露的重要訊息是： We ended the quarter with over $204 billion in cash plus marketable securities. We issued $14 billion of new term debt and retired $3.5 billion of term debt leaving us with total debt of almost $122 billion. As a result, net cash was $83 billion at the end of the quarter.

我把Q&A部分放到最前面，CEO與CFO的開場摘要則放到最後。

Q&A部分

許多關於供應鏈是否存在短缺或不足的問題，現代供應鍊大神Tim Cook全都語焉不詳，只強調Q2他們不存在material shortage。

另外就是有提到中國市場成長力道強勁，且2/3的中國iPad和Mac買家都是第一次購買蘋果產品的用戶，這對Apple來說是讓他們感到樂觀的現象。

同樣的，關於Apple Service Business部分Tim Cook一樣東拉西扯就是不肯提供更多訊息，頂多只說從去年開始Apple App Store與開發者的抽成費率降了15%。

還有Apple這次與Facebook鬧翻的隱私權問題，在這個恐怕重創FB營運的決策上，Tim Cook依然官腔滿滿，聲稱「Apple在做對的事」，他們就是要給用戶選擇保護自己隱私的權利，無關Apple或任何其他公司。（有點此地無銀三百兩）

值得一提的是，Tim又補充：「即便沒多少用戶選擇不被隱私追蹤，蘋果也堅持要提供這個功能」（這是說絕大多數用戶不需要這個功能，Apple也堅持要花費成本做下去？你還跟我說是利益用戶而不是針對其他公司？）

Tim Cook 開場：
1. new March quarter records for both revenue and earnings, besting our year ago revenue performance by 54%.

2. iPhone, which grew 66% year- over-year driven by the strong popularity of the iPhone 12 family.

3. iPad grow very strong double digits to its highest March quarter revenue in nearly a decade.

4. In fact, the last three quarters for Mac have been its three best quarters ever
Wearables, Home and Accessories, which grew by 25% year-over-year.

5. Services. We achieved growth of 27% year-over-year and set new records for services in each of our geographic segments.
Over the next five years, we will invest $430 billion, creating 20,000 jobs in the process.

CFO Luca Maestri開場：

1. Our revenue reached a March quarter record of $89.6 billion, an increase of over $31 billion or 54% from a year ago.

2. Products revenue was a March quarter record of $72.7 billion, up 62% over a year ago.

3. Our services set an all-time record of $16.9 billion, growing 27% over a year ago. ( App Store, cloud services, music, video, advertising and payment services. Our new service offerings, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News Fitness+)

4. Company gross margin was 42.5%, up 270 basis points from last quarter driven by cost savings, a strong mix and favorable foreign exchange. Products gross margin was 36.1%, growing 100 basis points sequentially also thanks to cost savings and FX, partially offset by seasonal loss of leverage. Services gross margin was 70.1%, up 170 basis points sequentially and mainly due to a different mix. Net income of $23.6 billion, diluted earnings per share of $1.40 and operating cash flow of $24 billion were all March quarter records by a wide margin.

5. During the March quarter, we added more than 40 million paid subs sequentially, and we have now reached more than 660 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform. This is up $145 million from just a year ago and twice the number of paid subscriptions we are only 2.5 years ago.

6. Apple Watch continues to extend its reach, with nearly 75% of the customers purchasing Apple Watch during the quarter being new to the product.

7. Mac. We set an all-time revenue record of $9.1 billion, up 70% over last year, and grew very strongly in each geographic segment with all-time revenue records in Europe and rest of Asia Pacific and March quarter records in the Americas, Greater China and Japan. This amazing performance was driven by the very enthusiastic customer response to our new Macs powered by the M1 chip.

8. iPad performance was also outstanding with revenue of $7.8 billion up 79%.

9. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones

10. We ended the quarter with over $204 billion in cash plus marketable securities. We issued $14 billion of new term debt and retired $3.5 billion of term debt leaving us with total debt of almost $122 billion. As a result, net cash was $83 billion at the end of the quarter.

11. we were also able to return nearly $23 billion to shareholders during the March quarter. This included $3.4 billion in dividends and equivalents and $19 billion through open market repurchases of 147 million Apple shares.

12. This will cause a steeper sequential decline than usual. Second, we believe supply constraints will have a revenue impact of $3 billion to $4 billion in the June quarter.
https://yuanyu.idv.tw/2021/05/03/apple-2021-q2-電話法說會摘要/