สรุปภาพรวม เศรษฐกิจ ภาคอีสาน /โดย ลงทุนแมน
ภาคตะวันออกเฉียงเหนือ หรือ “ภาคอีสาน”
เป็นภูมิภาคที่มีพื้นที่ใหญ่ที่สุดในประเทศไทย
และเป็นภูมิภาคที่มีจำนวนประชากรมากที่สุดของประเทศ
เลยทำให้ภาคอีสาน เป็นภูมิภาคที่สำคัญที่สุด ภูมิภาคหนึ่งของประเทศไทย
...Continue ReadingSummary of Northeastern Economy / Investment Man
North East or ′′ Northeast ′′
The region with the largest area in Thailand.
And the most populous region of the country
That's why the Northeastern region is the most important region of Thailand.
But did you know that the Northeastern region has GDP proportion of less than 10 % of GDP Thailand..
What about today's economic overview of the Northeastern region?
Investment man will tell you about it.
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First let's get to know the Northeastern region first.
Northeast or Northeast
There are over 168,854 square kilometers.
It's about 1 in 3 of Thailand's area.
Which if we compare the northeastern region to country.
Will be 200 times bigger than Singapore
Currently, the Northeastern region has an estimated population of 22 million people.
Almost 1 in 3 of the population of Thailand.
Just the northeastern region of Thailand, one sector has the same population as Cambodia and Laos all over the country.
Enough is like this if we look in terms of size, area and population.
I will see that the Northeastern region is important to Thailand.
Over the past ten years.
Economy of the Northeastern region has high expansion compared to other regions.
Rising the proportion of poor people in the Northeastern region quickly.
And also the economic structures of the Northeastern region start to change.
From farming farming, farming, it's changed to more economic outside the farming sector.
However, even the economy of the Northeastern region
There will be continued growth in the past.
But the economic value of this place still has low proportion.
Compared to Thailand's economic value.
In 2561, consolidated product value for provinces in the Northeastern region.
Aka GPP (Gross Provincial Product) is worth 1.5 trillion baht.
The value in this part is not 10 % of the GDP of Thailand's GDP, the whole country is around 17 trillion baht.
While the average per capita income of the Northeastern population is 84,000 baht per year, the least in the 6 regions of Thailand. Interesting is this number is less than the average income per capita. The population of Laos is 85,000 baht per year. ..
And compared to the average income per capita, the Thai population equals 236,000 baht.
You will see that the average income per capita population is less than the average income per capita. The Thai population is almost 3 times more.
One more interesting thing is
Even the most populous region
But it's a sector that has physician proportion to very small population, compared to Thailand's average.
population proportion to 1 doctors in 2561
Thailand has a population of 1,868 people per 1 doctors.
The Northeastern region has a proportion of population of 2,725 people per 1 doctors.
In terms of tourism sector
Even in the Northeastern region, there are many landmark attractions.
Not much money to make from travel
In 2562, the Northeastern region has 100,000 million Baht tourism income, which is proportionate to only 3 % of Thailand's tourism income.
Another interesting story is
The wealth of the Northeastern people is in 4 provinces which are called ′′ Big Four of Isan
Which consists of
1. Nakhon Ratchasima has an economic size of 296,000 million baht
2. Khon Kaen has economic size equal to 211,200 million Baht.
3. Ubon Ratchathani. Economic size is equal to 124,200 million Baht
4. Udon Thani has an economic size of 111,600 million baht.
I will see that 4 provinces are coming.
There is a combined economic value of over 743,000 million Baht.
Or nearly 50 % of the economic value of the Northeastern region.
Prosperity in the Northeastern region that clusters just a few provinces
cause the problem that follows is
Labor from the province in the northeastern region.
Must travel to work in 4 such wealthy provinces.
And some may move into a job in Bangkok for a better life opportunity.
When this happens, it makes the economy in the overview of the Northeastern region not driven to spread to each area as well.
From what you say, we will see.
Northeastern region has many advantages.
The whole matter of labour more than other regions
There are areas adjacent to neighbouring countries in Laos and Cambodia that are suitable for regional trade and border investment.
A major problem right now
How to make the northeastern economy grow even more.
And how to make Northeastern people a thoroughly better living.
At the end, if the Northeastern region has a better economy, it will make the whole Thailand economy better, according to direct and indirect..
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References
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isan
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thailand
-https://www.nesdc.go.th/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=5628&filename=gross_regional
-https://www.car.chula.ac.th/display7.php?bib=b2156772
-https://www.creativethailand.org/article/thinktank/32362/th#the-new-isan
-http://social.nesdc.go.th/SocialStat/StatReport_FullScreen.aspx?reportid=304&template=1R2C&yeartype=M&subcatid=18
-https://mots.go.th/more_news_new.php?cid=411Translated
big enough wiki 在 ลงทุนแมน Facebook 的最讚貼文
กรณีศึกษา คูเวต ประเทศที่ รวยน้ำมัน แต่เงินกำลังจะหมด /โดย ลงทุนแมน
คูเวต ประเทศหนึ่งในภูมิภาคตะวันออกกลาง
ที่ร่ำรวยจากการครอบครองทรัพยากรน้ำมันมาเป็นเวลานาน
แต่รู้ไหมว่า ในวันนี้ คูเวตกำลังเจอปัญหาใหญ่...
Continue ReadingKuwait case study. Oil rich country but money is running out / by investman
Kuwait, one country in the Middle East region.
Rich from occupying oil resources for a long time.
But you know, Kuwait is in big trouble today.
Well, the country's reserve funds are running out.
What happened to Kuwait? Invest man will tell you about it.
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Kuwait is an Asian country in the Middle East region.
Which is an abundance of oil resources.
In 2019, Kuwait had a GDP value of 4.3 trillion baht and a population of 4.4 million people.
Make GDP per capita of Kuwait population equal to 977,000 baht.
4 times more than GDP per head of Thai people.
Kuwait has an area of 17,818 square kilometers, which is about 30 times smaller than Thailand.
Despite being the world's 152th small country.
But Kuwait is the world's 6th most crude resource country.
And one of the country members who expired oil (OPEC)
Kuwait has a crude oil reserves up to 101,500 million barrels. This amount is estimated to be 6 % of the world's crude oil reserves.
If crude oil prices are around $ 40 per barrel, Kuwait's crude oil reserves will be worth 128 million baht.
When things are like this, it means
Oil resources are highly important to Kuwait economy.
Year 2019 Kuwait's crude export revenue is worth 1.5 trillion baht.
In which such value is considered.
90 % of Kuwait's total export income
90 % of Kuwait government income
And 35 % of GDP, Kuwait
In 2016
Anas Al-Saleh, Kuwait's finance minister in those days, warns the government to lower the country's expenditure budget to be prepared for a moment when petrol prices will fall in the future.
But his warning is right. Many people laugh at me.
Because most people believe that the country will continue to earn massive oil exports income.
After that, come on
During the 2016-2018 s, crude oil prices continue to adapt.
It's something that makes many people confident that Anas Al-Saleh warnings won't happen.
But then the emergence of the trade war between US and China in 2019 begins to pressure the global oil demand to slow down.
And the incident started worse than that
When the world later, the COVID-19 outbreak begins.
Plague plague making global travel and production drops.
The global oil demand is reduced from the same.
Besides, there's a fuel war between Saudi Arabia and Russia that both of them won't reduce their production capacity. The oil prices are increasingly adapting.
2018 Dubai crude oil prices average $ 70 per barrel
2019 Dubai crude oil prices average $ 64 per barrel
While the first 6 months of 2020, the average Dubai crude price is only $ 41 per barrel.
What happens is income from crude oil exports
90 % of Kuwaiti government income is greatly reduced.
Make the government not enough money to pay for public sector employers.
At present, more than 80 % of Kuwait people, or around 3.5 million people work as government employees.
Make government spend money in country's reserve funds during the 3 months after COVID-19 outbreak. The fund has gone down to over 411,000 million baht.
Which if crude oil prices don't rise from the same.
It will only make Kuwait government pay for public sector employees until November this year.
Enough is like this next year, Kuwait government needs to make a budget deficit.
Which will cause budget deficit to the level of 1.4 trillion baht
Thinking about a deficit, increasing almost 3 times more than the 2019-2020 fiscal year.
And the budget deficit is the 7th year in a row since 2014
What's worrisome is if the government needs to borrow money.
Among lower oil prices, Kuwait may earn enough oil export income to pay back the loan.
Make it now Kuwait has to have a concept of country reform.
Under Vision 2035 slogan: New Kuwait
The point is that it's important to try to reduce oil industry revenue reliance on revenue.
Which is to follow how much Kuwait's long-term plan this time will accomplish.
From this story preview of Kuwait country
It's something to remind us whether it's a country, corporation or individual.
Being too dependent on income in any way is a high risk.
Like this case, Kuwait relies on income from crude oil exports up to 90 % of export income.
If one day the main income drops or disappears.
From a long time ago, I might lose money easily too..
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References
-https://www.pionline.com/economy/oil-rich-kuwait-running-out-cash
-https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Kuwait-Is-Running-Out-Of-Money-To-Pay-Public-Salaries.html
-https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200820-kuwait-will-not-be-able-to-pay-salaries-after-november/
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_area
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuwait
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
-http://www.worldstopexports.com/kuwaits-top-10-exports/
-https://fanack.com/kuwait/economy/
-https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=M
- Form 56-1 Year 2562, Thai Oil Public Company Limited
-https://www.set.or.th/dat/news/202008/20088082.pdfTranslated
big enough wiki 在 ลงทุนแมน Facebook 的最佳解答
ทำไม มาตรการ QE ของสหรัฐ ไม่ทำให้เกิดเงินเฟ้อ ขั้นรุนแรง /โดย ลงทุนแมน
Quantitative Easing หรือที่เรียกสั้นๆ ว่า QE
คือเครื่องมือหนึ่ง ที่ธนาคารกลาง ใช้ในการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจ
โดยการอัดฉีดเงิน เพื่อเพิ่มสภาพคล่องให้ระบบเศรษฐกิจ ในภาวะเศรษฐกิจชะลอตัว
...Continue ReadingWhy U.S. QE measures don't cause severe inflation / by investman
Quantitative Easing aka QE
Is one tool that central banks use to stimulate the economy.
By pumping money to increase liquidity for the economic system in slowing economic progress.
But the result that many people worry about is.
Amount of money will rise in the economic system which will bring inflation.
And may be severe to severe inflation aka ′′ Hyperinflation
We have seen many countries do QE hard.
Will this lead to severe inflation in the future?
Investing man will try to analyse it.
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First, let's understand the meaning of Hyperinflation.
Hyperinflation is a condition where product prices rise quickly.
Makes the country's money value go down dramatically
Why the value of money goes down
As a result, lots and lots of money flowing into the economy.
Compared to the same amount of goods and services in the economic system.
Price increases product prices quickly
An example of past severe Hyperinflation incident.
Such as in Hungary and Venezuela
Hyperinflation in Hungary happened in 1946
During that time, Hungary was heavily damaged by WWI.
Especially various infrastructure systems.
The Hungarian Government has shortage of budgets in economic revival.
So I decided to print a lot of money to repair the city's home and stimulate the economy.
Making money in Hungary's system is increasing tremendously.
As much as the amount of money increases, the domestic products are still the same.
So it makes inflation rise quickly
Hungary average product prices increase to 2 times in 15 hours.
By the moment of Hyperinflation
Hungary inflation rate rises to 150,000 % within one day.
Venezuela part of year 2019
Venezuelan inflation rises to 10,000,000
The cause of this story is similar to the case of Hungary
Well there is excessive economic system injection
Both to stimulate a slowing economy from low petrol prices.
Including to use for government's populist policies
We'll see that all 2 events have one thing in common.
Well there is a huge economic system injection.
Which leads to hyperinflation
Back at present COVID crisis-19
Many countries have measures to stimulate the economy.
With lots of money pumping into the economic system
US Central Bank
Using unlimited amount of QE measures
From the original designated price of about 22 trillion baht per year.
Central Bank of Japan
It's another country that uses unlimited amount of QE measures.
From the original designated, about 24 trillion baht per year.
European Central Bank announces more projects
In acquisition of emergency assets worth over 27 trillion baht.
It will see that many countries are now pumping a lot of money into the system.
And in many countries, I used to do heavy QE before.
For example, the case of the USA.
There has been a lot of money pumping into the economic system in the past 10 years.
Since the 2008 US Real Estate Bubble crisis.
Interesting is that US inflation rates aren't adjusted to much higher like the cases of Hungary and Venezuela.
2010 US average inflation rate equates to 1.6 %
2019 US average inflation rate equates to 1.8 %
Japan is another country where xỳāng h̄nạk measures are taken.
But inflation is still at low near 0 % as well.
Why is the story like this?
This phenomenon is partly because
US and Japan central banks make QE through asset purchases.
Both bonds, shares, loan from commercial banks.
And commercial banks are responsible for re-releasing money into the economy.
But what happens is that commercial banks don't forward the money they get from central banks.
To the business and household sector as everyone thought at first.
The cause is because during economic recession or slowdown.
Household sector tends to save money rather than bring money to spend.
Due to insecure future economic
For example, in USA.
The deposit amount in the COVID-19 pre-birth system is around 416 trillion baht.
But when COVID-19 goes viral, deposits in the system increase to almost 500 trillion baht.
Within just a few months
Meanwhile, a bad economic situation.
Making selling business sector products and services difficult.
Making production and service still very much available.
Business sector may not require a loan to expand business.
Enough demand for products and services doesn't increase higher.
Well, things don't go much higher.
Even with lots of money in the system
Another point is.
Countries with large economies like USA and Japan
Own the world's main currency with high credibility.
Most people still believe and still demand to hold these currency.
In conclusion, if you ask for QE making of big countries today.
Will it lead to severe inflation in the future?
I have to say that this problem can be difficult for big countries like USA and Japan.
But the point is, this plague crisis doesn't know when it ends.
And countries inject money log in
For a country which is economically stable as a big country, it might be careful.
Because those countries may have severe inflation, different from this case..
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References
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
-https://nomadcapitalist.com/2014/04/20/top-5-worst-cases-hyperinflation-history/
-https://www.businessinsider.com/hungarys-hyperinflation-story-2014-4
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Venezuela
-https://www.thestreet.com/investing/federal-reserve-unveils-unlimited-qe-to-confront-coronavirus
-https://www.schroders.com/en/bm/asset-management/insights/economic-views/bank-of-japan-ramps-up-qe-again-amid-dismal-outlook/
-https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
-https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/japan/news/inflation/core-consumer-prices-hold-steady-in-june-in-annual-terms
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/ecb.projections202006_eurosystemstaff~7628a8cf43.en.html#toc3
-https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2900/inflation/inflation-and-quantitative-easing/
-https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPSACBW027SBOGTranslated